12 Mart 2013 Salı

Buy - Sell

·         CURRENT ACCOUNT (JAN) @ 10AM > TEB-BNPP & Cons -$5.3bn (Dec -$4.6bn). Recall adjusted tourism revenue calculations go into effect. Should bring last year’s CAD to $46.7bn (5.8% of GDP vs. unadjusted 6.1% of GDP).
·         BRSA DATA => LOAN GROWTH BRISK; DEPOSIT GROWTH STALLS; NPL VOLUME GROWTH EYE CATCHING => According to the BRSA data as March 1, loans grew 2.8% y-t-d (annualised 26%). Commercial & instalment loans (+7.8% y-t-d), housing loans (+4.5% y-t-d) and general purpose loans (+3.6% y-t-d). Loans/Deposits ratio has been on the rise since YE12 (101% sector avg vs 99% end-2012), as deposits grew by a mere 0.8% y-t-d (slower compared to loans). 5.5% y-t-d growth rate in shareholders’ equity signals further MTM gains. NPL ratio remained unchanged at 2.9%. However 7.7% y-t-d NPL volume growth is eye-catching (+TL1.7bn y-t-d). NPL vol growth +9.8% y-t-d  for pvt and +9.4% for participation banks. Supports positive core spread evolution so far in 1Q13, as there is almost no growth in deposits (read: no competitive pricing). On the asset quality side, the figure is gradually moving away from the trend. Although the NPL ratio and NPL provisioning ratio hover around 2.9% and 75% respectively, the NPL aging impact might be sever in 2Q13, lifting the specific cost-of-risk ratio towards 125-130bp vs 105bp in FY12.

·         TCELL > CMB appointed three members to TCELL’s 7-member BoD to replace one rep from each of three majority shareholders. New BoD will be composed of: 1 Cukurova, 1 Alfa, 1 TeliaSonera reps, 3 new CMB members and 1 independent member. Local dailies say this will enable distribution of dividends. We disagree. The dividend decision also needs General Assembly approval, which rests on the election of the “51% TCELL Holding” representative. The election of this representative is only possible if a 4/5 quorum is reached at Cukurova Telcom Holding’s BoD where Alfa and Cukurova are still in dispute. Comment: Although this might increase hopes for divi distribution and affect the share price +ly in the short term, we see the appointees simply as the CMB fulfilling its duty by intervening in a non-functional board. Note that the new CMB mgmt came into force at the beginning of this year.  
·         GUBRF (BUY; TP TL20.0) > Gubretas will receive TL55.8m divi pymt for 2013 (TL203m in 2012) from its Iran ops (Razi – 49% owned by GUBRF & fully cons’d in GUBRF financials). Note that Gubretas has to pay 15% corporate income taxes on the divi received from Iran. This would be an important transaction, if Gubretas were to pay out dividend to its shareholders. As GUBRF does not have any plan to pay out any divi, higher divi received from Razi would only imply higher corporate income taxes and lower cash position for GUBRF (due to divi payment to minority shareholders as well as GUBRF). Hence, y/day’s reaction in share price (-6.4%) was irrational.
·         ISCTR (BUY, TP: TRY8.78) > Market talk of TL denominated Eurobonds. If deal happens would be the third Lira denominated Eurobond issue in the TR banking sector after AKBNK and GARAN. Comment: Slightly +VE, as TL denominated Eurobond issues will help diversify and extend the duration of ISCTR’s funding base
·         THYAO (BUY; TP TL8.46) > The PA plans to sign a new contract for advisory services for the privatisation of the gov’s remaining 49.1% stake in Turkish Airlines => existing contract expired recently and the gov has not made any decisions about what to do with the stake. Comment: News might re-trigger overhang risk talk => exp slight weakness today. We, however, think this is a routine renewal decision and not important news.

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