Buy - Sell

·         MPC REVIEW > CBRT kept the policy rate unchanged @ 4.50% but raised the o/n lending to non-PDs by 50bps to 7.75%.  O/n lending to PDs was kept on hold @ 6.75%.  Net effect > Only widens the i/r corridor on “extraordinary days”. If CBRT does not resort to tightening days more frequently the move will have a very limited impact. What’s next > We continue to expect the CBRT to raise o/n lending rate to PDs by 100bp by October, following possible clarification of Fed’s policies in the Fall.

 

·         DOAS (HOLD, TP TL10.70) 2Q13 RESULTS: 24% MISS IN EBITDA > NI @ TL65m (-19% y-y, below our TL80m and cons TL79m ests. EBITDA @ TL81m (-15% y-y) also missed our TL108m & cons TL106m ests. Tax purpose financials released on 19 Aug had hinted to d/side risk to ests; yet, we believe the mkt has not priced in such a -VE earnings surprise. Rev incr’d 15% y-y to TL1,614m (our est: TL1,660m, cons: TL1,640m). EBITDA mrgn declined sharply by 1.8ppt y-y to 5.0% (-1.5ppt q-q) <= 1.7ppt decline in gross profit mrgn. TRY7.2m div from Dogus Holding (not in our 2Q est) partially compensated for oper weakness. We were expecting some -VE impact from TL depreciation on margins. However, given strong demand in 2Q13, we were assuming the co would do better in optimizing margins/top line. We expect an upward revision in revenue guidance for 2013 (TL5.2b-TL5.4b). Based on 1H13 data, there is some downside risk to our EBITDA margin est (5.7%), along with some upside risk to our bullish rev est (TL5.8b). Net debt incr’d fr TL586m to TL823m due to the TL220m div payment in the quarter. The Co will hold an analyst meeting today to discuss 2Q13 results and 2013 expectations.

 

·         CCOLA ( BUY, TP TL57.50) 2Q13 TDY > We exp NI @ TL115m (+29% y-y, +18% organic), EBITDA TL302m (+27% y-y, +18% y-y organic) & rev TL1580m (cons: TL120m, TL304m & TL1599m). CCI’s int’l and TR unit sales incr’d 46% (23% organic) and 3.5% resp’ly. 2Q13 results will include the impact of  i) acquisition of the Southern Iraq ops & full consolidation of the Pakistan ops (prev. partial consolidation @ 49.4%) – both starting from 2013  ii) strong organic growth on good pricing environment in both TR and int’l operations, iii) low cost pressure and iv) weak lira on the bottom-line. We est the increasing share of Pakistan & Southern Iraq business (lower margin) to reduce cons’d EBITDA mrgn by 0.3ppt y-y to 19.1% in 2Q13.

 

·         CIMSA (HOLD, TP TL12.50) 2Q13 TDY > TEB-BNPP est net sales: TL273mn, EBITDA: TL79mn, NI: TL307mn. Cons est net sales: TL293mn, EBITDA: TL75mn, NI: TL222mn. 1H13 tax financials last week indicated better than expected operational performance for 2Q13.

 

·         ENKAI (BUY, TP TL5.50) 2Q13 TDY > TEB-BNPP est Revenues TL1.58b, EBITDA TL194m, NI TL130m. Cons est Revenues TL1.51bn, EBITDA TL209m, NI: TL130m. We forecast 30% y-y growth in USD-based construction revs in 2Q13. We forecast EBITDA will increase 16% y-y, driven by increased occupancy rates in Russia and growth in the construction revenues. One-off gains related to winning of court cases in Russia should compensate for revaluation losses on the bond portfolio.

 

·         AKSEN (HOLD, TP TL3.50) POSTED  TL75M LOSS IN 2Q13> Much worse than con and our est of TL45m net loss due to higher-than-expected FX losses on its debt. EBITDA TL54m broadly in line with our and cons est (TL52m). Recall in 2Q13, electricity prices remained under pressure due to oversupply in electricity generation.

 

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