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MPC REVIEW > CBRT kept the policy rate unchanged @ 4.50% but raised the o/n lending
to non-PDs by 50bps to 7.75%. O/n lending to PDs was kept on hold @
6.75%. Net effect > Only widens the i/r corridor on
“extraordinary days”. If CBRT does not resort to tightening days more
frequently the move will have a very limited impact. What’s next > We
continue to expect the CBRT to raise o/n lending rate to PDs by 100bp by
October, following possible clarification of Fed’s policies in the Fall.
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DOAS (HOLD, TP
TL10.70) 2Q13 RESULTS: 24% MISS IN EBITDA > NI @ TL65m (-19% y-y, below our TL80m and cons TL79m ests. EBITDA @
TL81m (-15% y-y) also missed our TL108m & cons TL106m ests. Tax purpose
financials released on 19 Aug had hinted to d/side risk to ests; yet, we
believe the mkt has not priced in such a -VE earnings surprise. Rev incr’d 15% y-y to TL1,614m (our est: TL1,660m, cons: TL1,640m). EBITDA mrgn declined sharply by 1.8ppt y-y to 5.0% (-1.5ppt q-q) <=
1.7ppt decline in gross profit mrgn. TRY7.2m div from Dogus Holding (not in our
2Q est) partially compensated for oper weakness. We were expecting some -VE
impact from TL depreciation on margins. However, given strong demand in 2Q13,
we were assuming the co would do better in optimizing margins/top line. We
expect an upward revision in revenue guidance for 2013 (TL5.2b-TL5.4b). Based
on 1H13 data, there is some downside risk to our EBITDA margin est (5.7%),
along with some upside risk to our bullish rev est (TL5.8b). Net debt incr’d fr
TL586m to TL823m due to the TL220m div payment in the quarter. The Co will hold
an analyst meeting today to discuss 2Q13 results and 2013 expectations.