Buy - Sell

·         MOODY’S > Moody’s reportedly says Turkey’s investment grade “depends on structural improvement in current account deficit and more economic resilience to external shocks”. Says its “opinion has not changed after the C/A gap update”. We think this is as good as it gets for the current account deficit going forward.

 

·         VAKBN (BUY; TP: TL 6.72) Stronger-than-exp top-line (NII+Fees) > 4Q12 bank-only NI @ TL451m (+48% q-q & +72% y-y), 10% above our est & beating even highest mkt exp. FY12 NI @ TL1,460m (+19% y-y) & yielded 13.9% ROE (4Q12: 15.7%). Trading income compensated for provisions. NFI -30% y-y in 9M12, +15% y-y in 4Q12 => we exp further pickup in FY13 & conservatively pencil in 40% y-y. Loans +5.8% q-q (7.3% q-q on TL) => retail, commercial & installment loans => supported fees. Core spread +90bp q-q on TRY & +20bp q-q on FX. Deposit +8.5% q-q TL (120bp q-q lower cost) => supported +100bp q-q NIM (+60bp q-q adj. for ex-CPI linkers). Per-head HR costs -3.8% y-y in FY12. TL164m security portfolio trading gain & more may come in FY13 due to TL1,450m MTM gains being booked under equity. Asset quality strong => +5% q-q restructured loans. CoR +60bp q-q to 174bp due to ageing NPLs. CAR +240bp to 16.1%. NET/NET: 4Q12 oper performance strong & we exp this to be carried into 2013. We exp +16.4% y-y EPS in FY13 (outpacing sector avg), improving ROE & multiples attractive @ 2013E P/E & P/BV of 7.9x & 1.1x & ROE of 13.9%, maintain BUY.

 

·         YKBNK (BUY; TP: TL6.41 vs TL6.54) > TL512m bank-only net profit in 4Q12 (-5% q-q & +8% y-y), broadly in line => +3% y-y EPS & 13.8% RoE. Rel weak oper perf vs peers offset by high trading income & other oper income => 4Q prov exp cTL80m above guidance. NIM evolution not that promising => 35bp q-q improvement in TL L/D vs +c90bps for sector, prob on above-sector avg growth for TL loans & deposits (7.2% q-q & 4.7% q-q). TL380m net NPL inflow in 4Q12 (TL300m in 3Q12) => CoR +50bps. Restructured loans +23% q-q => need to keep eye on future asset quality. 2013 guidance => +18% y-y loan growth in line with 17% y-y fee growth guidance. 17% y-y deposit growth forecast above avg given their desire to keep TL L/D spread @ 125% lvl we reckon. Less pressure on cost-of-funding given moderate competition. We see stable-to-sl. lower NIM target reachable. We have doubts steady/sl. lower cost-of-risk guidance => bias towards credit card loans an obstacle. We pencil in flattish CoR. Stick on our 25% 2013 EPS growth est; 2013E P/E: 9.13x P/BV:1.21 ROE: 13.8%.

 

·         ISCTR (BUY; TP: TL 8.78) 4Q12 bank-only NI @ TL965m (+41% q-q, +12%  y-y), above our est => higher trading income. FY12 NI @ TL3,310m, +24% y-y, 16.5% RoE. Highlights of oper’g performance => strong loan growth @ 8.7% q-q & L/D spread improvement (~90bp q-q on TL side). 9.6% q-q TL loan growth with minimal loan yield damage => corporate loans led both TL & FX. NIM progress => one of key issues to follow in FY13. We exp c.15bp y-y NIM contraction in FY13 (in line w mgmt guidance of flat/sl. contraction) & exp L/D spread to narrow, especially in 2H13. Restructured loans +37% q-q =>  we exp CoR in FY13 to reach 66bp (60bp in FY12). FY12 opex @ 29% (adj for TL440m employee pension fund deficit @ 13% y-y). 2013FY guidance for opex @ 10% y-y. Guidance: +15% y-y net fee income; 16%-18% y-y loan growth; NPL ratio guided to remain c.2% with 0.6% net NPL formation rate. NET/NET: Strong NI supported by both good oper’g perf & massive trading gains. Most of restructured loans in 4Q12 are under Group-I => potential NPL threat is low; 2013E P/E & P/BV of 8.5x & 1.2x & ROE of 15%.

 

·         TTRAK (HOLD, TP TL48.50) > 4Q12 NI TL52m & EBITDA TL 59.1m. NI slightly above our est (TL50.4m) and con est (TL46.8m) thanks to lower income taxes (invest incentive). EBITDA in line. We raised our NI and EBITDA est by 3% and 4% for 2013/14 on back of some improvement in profit mrgn on sl. higher unit prices. Tractor demand continued to decline in last 6 mths. We expect the y-y decline in local unit sales to gain pace in 1H13. We expect a 10% further decline in local demand in 2013. See -VE growth momentum in earnings. We expect divi of TRY4.27/shr (assuming 85% payout ratio).  In absence of major catalyst (gov’t scrap incentive) stock fairly priced.

 

·         TRCAS (NR) > Socar TR CEO reportedly said co would sign prelim agreement with bank consortium within a month for financing of Socar-Turcas oil refinery investment. Expected to spend $4b on refinery excl financial exp (at most $5b including financial exp). $1.9b expected to be funded through equity. Said prelim agreement with EPC consortium (Reunidas, Saipem, GS Engineering & Construction and Itochu) expected to be signed before mth-end. Comment > Invest figure below previous guidance ($5.5b) but equity portion is higher (+40% vs. 30% previously). Probably due to specific characteristics of Socar-Turcas refinery investment rather than aversion to new oil refining investment in TR.

 

·         AUTO SECTOR INCENTIVES: TOASO (HOLD, TP TL11.50), FROTO ( HOLD, TP TL21.20) > The exp’d chng in investment incentives on auto sector published in the official gazette => auto investments above TL300m will be classified as “investments with specific priorities” which benefit from invest contribution of 30-40% (via lower taxes). For Tofas, more favourable incentive scheme is especially +VE (e.g., for next invest cycle of Minicargo, Linea). Moreover, might incr odds for Tofas in receiving a new prod’n mandate from Fiat. For Ford Otosan, which is undergoing through an invest cycle, there might be sl. +VE impact on val. if Ford Otosan receives a renewed invest certificate retrospectively under the new scheme. Today, Minister of Economy will meet sector reps to discuss the new scheme.

 

·         AKCNS > Might announce 4Q12 today. Cons est: Net Sales @ TL266m, EBITDA @ TL53m and NI @ TL28m

 

TAX-FINANCIALS >

 

·         BIMAS > Results hint that revenue growth (IFRS financials) in 4Q12 will be 15%-18% y-y vs cons est of +19% y-y. Accordingly, NI in 4Q12 likely to be ~2% below cons est.

 

·         SKBNK (REDUCE; TP TL1.83) > TL240.3m NI in FY12 => TL62.2m in 4Q12 => below our est of TL68m => in line with cons.

 

·         ANSGR > TL64m loss in FY12 => TL15m further loss in 4Q12 => only slightly –VE; we think largely priced in.

 

·         TCELL > Not indicative, as it only reports TR figures. Nevertheless TR revs seem to be roughly in line with ests.

 

·         MGROS > Indicate 4Q12 revs likely to be close to CNBC-e consensus est of TL1.68b.