Deprem için kurumlar vergisi...

Meclis’te görüşülen kanuna eklenen bir madde ile kurumlar vergisi indirim ve istisnalarından yararlanan şirketlere 2022 yılındaki teşviklerinden tek seferlik %10 deprem vergisi alınacak. Yaklaşık 22 bin şirketin bu düzenlemeden etkileneceği tahmin ediliyor. 

Yeni vergi şirketlerin VUK’a göre düzenlenmiş finansalları üzerinden hesaplanacağından, UFRS finansallarındaki yeniden değerlemeden kaynaklanan ertelenmiş vergi gelirleri bu hesaplamada dikkate alınmayabilir.

Vergi teşviklerinden yararlanan FROTO, VESBE, SISE, ARCLK, LOGO, TOASO, TCELL, TTKOM ENJSA, SASA, TUPRS, EREGL, ISDMR ve ASELS

Tüpraş Raporu 24/11/2016

Risksiz getiri oranının %5.25'ten %6'ya yükselmesi ve beklentilerimizdeki revizyonlar nedeniyle Tüpraş için hedef fiyatımızı 81.7 TL'den 77.8 TL'ye indiriyoruz. Toplam %23 getiri potansiyeli ile AL tavsiyemizi sürdürüyoruz. Yıllık bazda karlılıktaki düşüş ve TL'nin son dönemdeki değer kaybı nedeniyle temettüde gerileme öngörsek de, hisse başına temettü 4.5 TL ile %7'lik verim sunuyor. Son üç ayda BIST-100'ün %16 üzerinde performans göstermesine karşın, 2017T F/K ile benzerlerine gore %22 iskontolu işlem görüyor olup gelecek 12 aylık FD/VAFÖK geçmiş ortalamasının %16 altında bulunuyor.

- Dizel karlılığı diplerden toparlandı. Aylık ortalamada ton başına 7.2 dolara kadar gerileyen dizel karlılığı 21 Kasım itibariyle 4Ç16'da 12 dolara yükseldi. Aralık'ta 11 dolar seviyelerine gerilemesini beklesek de, La Nina dolayısıyla geçen yıla göre daha daha sert bir kış beklentisi dizel talebini destekleyebilir. Bu nedenle 4Ç16'da 5.75 dolar rafineri marjı bekliyoruz ve VAFÖK'ün çeyrek bazda yükselişini (+%21) sürdürerek 974mn TL'ye ulaşmasını öngörüyoruz. Dizel karlılığının 2016'daki 9.7 dolar seviyesinden 2017'de 11.6 dolar seviyesine gelmesini ve RUP'taki yangına bağlı 1Y16'daki düşük bazın da etkisiyle 2017 VAFÖK'ünün %34'lük artışla 3,661 mn TL seviyesine gelmesini öngörüyoruz. 

Tüpraş Teknik Analizi

Hisse üzerinde son dönemde etkili olan yoğun satışların 47,90 seviyesinde dengelendiğini görmekteyiz. Teknik açıdan hissede son bir haftadır 47,90 seviyesinden başlayan bir toparlanma hareketi takip edilmektedir. Kısa vadeli göstergelerin olumluya dönmeye başlayan sinyalleri dikkate alındığında, hissede toparlanma hareketinin teknik olarak devam etmesi, önümüzdeki süreçte ilk etapta 51,00-52,50 bandının test edilmesi beklenebilir. 

 

Hissenin son dönemde etkili olan satış baskısından kurtulabilmesi, daha uzun süreli bir hareketin oluşabilmesi için ana direnç konumunda bulunan 52,50 seviyelerinin aşılması önemli olacaktır. Hareketin bu yönde olması durumunda, sırasıyla 54,25 seviyeleri ile 55,00-56,50 bandı hedeflenebilir.

 

Ana destek noktası olarak ise kısa vadeli yükselen trend çizgisine denk gelen 48,70 seviyesi ön plana çıkmakta, hisse üzerinde etkili olacak satışların da, teknik olarak ilk etapta 48,70 seviyesine yaklaştıkça durulacağını, bu seviyenin üzerinden yeni yukarı atakların oluşabileceğini düşünmekteyiz. Bu nedenle, 48,70 seviyesine stop loss koyup, hissede düşüşlerde pozisyon alınmasını önermekteyiz.

TUPRAS - TP and earnings update: BUY

TP increase on lower WACC estimate and earnings revisions
We reduce our estimate for Tupras’s WACC by 40bp and our earnings estimates for 2012 through 2014 by 3% to 10%, while our 2012 volume estimate rises slightly. We lower our dividend estimates by less than our profit estimates, especially for 2013, as we think Tupras had room to increase its pay-out ratio vs. our estimates. TP raised 4% to TRY59.20.

Stabilisation of Eurobond yields and unfavourable product cracks
Turkish long-term Eurobond yields have stabilised at c.4.5% (down 50bp from those just two months ago). This is the main reason for the change in our WACC estimate. The changes in our earnings estimates are driven by notable deviation in product crack spreads from our estimates in 4Q12 and our assessment of slightly lower domestic sales prices.

TP based on a blend of DCF (75%) and peer comparison (25%)
A large portion of our TP comes from DCF as Tupras is in an investment phase. Tupras trades at a 30% premium to peers on average 2012E-13E P/E, but we think this is deserved given its more robust margins, better growth prospects and high dividend payments; we estimate an 8% yield for 2013.

Margins to show strength in 2013 even without further recovery
Given the significant number of refinery closures in developed countries, especially Europe over the last four years, we expect refining margins overall will remain higher in 2013 than

TUPRAS - Strong margins & stable TRY: BUY

Target price raised 6% after 3Q12 results confirm our bullish view
With the company posting results above our already bullish expectations for 3Q12, we raise our target price to TRY51.40 from TRY48.60. Our target price is raised mainly on the DCF component of our analysis providing c.7% higher valuation for the stock while the peer-comparison based analysis provides nearly the same valuation.

3Q12 results positively surprise with higher than expected EBITDA
Tupras posted a bottom line 8% higher than our already bullish expectations while beating CNBCE consensus by more than 15% in 3Q12. The positive surprise came from better than expected underlying profits (EBITDA) which was nearly 10% higher than both our and consensus estimates.

TP based on a blend of DCF (75%) and peer comparisons (25%)
A big portion of our TP comes from DCF as Tupras is in an investment phase. Tupras trades at about a 10% premium over peers on an average 2012-13E P/E basis at 9x, but we think it deserves an even higher multiple for its more robust margins, better growth prospects and high dividend payments which we estimate will enable a 9% yield for 2013.

3Q12 results prove robustness and better industry conditions
Despite nearly halving its purchases from Iran y-y in 3Q12, Tupras was able to increase its net profit by nearly 60% y-y in 3Q12. For 9M12, the bottom line was up 6% y-y despite last year’s 9M11 earnings having been inflated by inventory gains (about 10% we estimate). Clean gross production refining margins for the company (production unit margin before inventory gains or losses) averaged about USD12/bbl in 3Q12 according to our estimates vs. about USD13/bbl a year ago. We estimate Tupras’s margins were significantly supported by the overall recovery in refining industry margins which we estimate has nearly doubled y-y on rationalization of capacity in the industry to a large extent.

Buy - Sell

·    FROTO (HOLD, TP: TL 17.4): Ford Motor Company (FMC) announced on Oct 25 it expects a $1.5b+ loss from European ops in 2012 & therefore announced a restructuring program (prev: $1b+ loss=> Will close 3 European facilities (Southampton, Genk, Tooling & stamping operations in Dagenham), decreasing European capacity by 18% (gross annual savings of $450m -500m)=> Transit assembly plant in Southampton (c.28k Transit production in 2011) to be closed & Transit production to be consolidated in Kocaeli/Turkey (est. 2H13) => Transit has highest rev/vehicle & highest mrg w/i FROTO’s portfolio => assuming incremental 25k units (9% of 2012E production) & no incremental Capex need => c.+10% on our DCF val for FROTO (to be partially negated by worsening outlook on mrg for 2013 than our current est indicate). Following relocation decision, FROTO might need to adjust capacity allocation b/w basic Transit models (160k units as of 2014) & Transit/ Tourneo Custom (130k units) => to have a balanced CUR b/w 2 lines in l/t => will recheck production numbers & Capex requirement if any. Restructuring plan of FMC can also facilitate more competitive pricing for PC ops of FROTO in mid-term => -VE trend in mrg of FROTO is not only driven by its ageing LCV product portfolio, but also uncompetitive pricing against VW brands in PC. NET/NET: +VE for FROTO given weakening outlook for 2013 => however we believe market was already partially pricing some positive developments on new sourcing arrangements. DIVIDEND: FROTO TRY0.65/share divi on Oct 31.

 

    Opel - PSA announcement & TOASO (BUY; TL9.25) > On Oct 24, Opel and PSA announced key steps in their global strategic alliance which includes next steps in joint purchasing organization, and four common vehicle platform development projects. The Alliance aims to launch the first vehicles on these common programs by end-2016. Impact on Tofas => possibly limited, but unconfirmed for now: we believe the most critical item that could impact Tofas could be the joint program for a compact-class Multi-Purpose Van

Buy - Sell

AKBNK (BUY, TP: TL8.80) => Borrowed $500m via a 5-year Eurobond at US treasury rate +328bp and $500m via a 10-year Eurobond at US treasury rate +345bp, according to Bloomberg. This indicates respective costs of 3.95% c.120bp and 5.15% c.155bp wider than Turkish government Eurobond yields with same maturities.

 

THYAO (U/R) => To add 20 new routes in 2013 according to local daily citing chairman’s comments to local TV channel. Comment: Growth impact => Only ~2%-3% in 2013. While THYAO flies to more than 200 destinations currently, new routes usually start off at low frequencies. We also assume opening of new routes will be spread over 2013.

 

AEFES (AEFES TP TL25.52) => The CMB approved AEFES’s application for a $500m debt issue. AEFEs did not specify reason behind, but believes the current environment is very favourable for new debt issue. Currently borrows @ LIBOR+250bps.  Mandated banks for a planned bond sale of $500m with 5,7 and 10 year maturities. We believe AEFES is looking at acquisition opps in Eastern Europe and nearby regions and would like to raise debt beforehand.

 

TURPS (BUY, TP TL 48.60) => Up to $1b of bonds, TUPRS plans to issue, have been registered by the CMB according to the board’s weekly bulletin issued yesterday. No further details are available as to pricing, maturity and the exact amount the company might issue eventually. The amount to be issued would most probably depend on the pricing according to our previous discussions with management. Comment: We expect TURPS will use bond proceeds to replace some banking debt it uses to finance its working capital (~$1.2b as end-1H12 according to our estimates).

 

AKSEN (HOLD, TP TL4.13)=> CMB approved AKSEN’s application to increase paid-in capital by 6.2% to TRY613m, first announced in April 2012. Recall that under the deal, AKSEN will sell the issued shares to GS at $2.94 per share. GS will also own a put option with a strike price of $2.94/share to return shares to AKSEN. The transaction will have no impact on the current share price.

 

ASELS (N/R) => State Tender Institution will require the Turkish Armed Forces Foundation and its subsidiaries to hold tenders for its procurements, according to daily Zaman. Negative for Asels.

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