Akbank Teknik Analizi

Orta vadeli yükselen hareket içinde bulunan hissede, ana destek noktasının 9,20 seviyelerine yükseldiğini görmekteyiz. Olası çekilmelerde bu seviyenin altına inilmediği sürece, hissede düşüşlerin kısa vadeli düzeltme hareketleri olarak kalacağını, yükseliş eğiliminin korunacağını, teknik açıdan önümüzdeki süreçte ilk etapta 10,00 seviyesine denk gelen ana direnç bölgesinin test edilebileceğini düşünmekteyiz. Bu nedenle, 9,20 seviyesine stop loss koyup, hissede geri çekilme hareketleri içinde pozisyon alınmasını önermekteyiz.

 

9,20 seviyesindeki desteğin bozulması durumunda ise, orta vadeli yükselen hareketin ivme kaybedeceğini, hissede düşüş hareketinin daha uzun süreye yayılmaya başlayacağını, satış baskısının yoğunlaşacağını düşündüğümüzden, alınan pozisyonların kapatılmasını tavsiye etmekteyiz. Ara destek noktaları olarak 9,76, 9,64, 9,56 ve 9,44 seviyeleri izlenebilir.

 

AKBANK - Improvements priced in: HOLD

Downgrading to HOLD on valuation while raising TP and earnings
We downgrade Akbank to HOLD (from Buy) on valuation grounds. The stock has rallied 23% since 28 September, outperforming the benchmark index by 12%. We continue to think the bank can maintain 16% ROE in the next few quarters and raise our 2013 net profit estimate by 11%. However, we believe the positive expectations are reflected in the 10.5x 2013E P/E.

Asset quality and costs are the two areas to watch out for
Akbank’s operating expenses continued to grow rapidly: the y-y increase reached a peer-high 25% in 3Q12 on fast net hirings and other costs which got somewhat out of control. While we expect net CoR to remain at a respectable 50bp in 2012, the significant 43% YTD growth in TRY SME loans could create problems in the future.

Raise DDM-based TP to TRY9.40 (from TRY8,80)
We downgrade to HOLD, but we are more bullish than the Street as our TP of TRY9.40 for Akbank is 15% above the Bloomberg consensus average TP. Further monetary easing is the key upside risk to our call while a sudden slowdown in the economy and regulatory changes targeting payment system fees in particular pose downside risks.

3Q12 ROE of 16% was in line with expectations
Akbank reported TRY779m net profit in 3Q12, in-between our TRY797m and CNBC-e consensus TRY766m estimates, for a 16% ROE. As the bank went for the CPI-linked bond adjustment in 3Q12, NIM expansion was limited to 19bp q-q, but the widening in loan-deposit spread exceeded our forecast at 48bp. Loan growth exceeded our expectation, at 7% q-q, while the bank replaced TRY securities with Eurobonds. On top of strong trading gains, there were additional TRY493m MTM gains under equity, helping book value grow TRY1.3b or 7% q-q. As a result, CAR improved by a full percentage point to 17.1% after Basel-II. In tandem with fast loan growth, fees rose 13% y-y, vs our 8% expectation.

Buy - Sell

AKBNK (BUY, TP: TL8.80) => Borrowed $500m via a 5-year Eurobond at US treasury rate +328bp and $500m via a 10-year Eurobond at US treasury rate +345bp, according to Bloomberg. This indicates respective costs of 3.95% c.120bp and 5.15% c.155bp wider than Turkish government Eurobond yields with same maturities.

 

THYAO (U/R) => To add 20 new routes in 2013 according to local daily citing chairman’s comments to local TV channel. Comment: Growth impact => Only ~2%-3% in 2013. While THYAO flies to more than 200 destinations currently, new routes usually start off at low frequencies. We also assume opening of new routes will be spread over 2013.

 

AEFES (AEFES TP TL25.52) => The CMB approved AEFES’s application for a $500m debt issue. AEFEs did not specify reason behind, but believes the current environment is very favourable for new debt issue. Currently borrows @ LIBOR+250bps.  Mandated banks for a planned bond sale of $500m with 5,7 and 10 year maturities. We believe AEFES is looking at acquisition opps in Eastern Europe and nearby regions and would like to raise debt beforehand.

 

TURPS (BUY, TP TL 48.60) => Up to $1b of bonds, TUPRS plans to issue, have been registered by the CMB according to the board’s weekly bulletin issued yesterday. No further details are available as to pricing, maturity and the exact amount the company might issue eventually. The amount to be issued would most probably depend on the pricing according to our previous discussions with management. Comment: We expect TURPS will use bond proceeds to replace some banking debt it uses to finance its working capital (~$1.2b as end-1H12 according to our estimates).

 

AKSEN (HOLD, TP TL4.13)=> CMB approved AKSEN’s application to increase paid-in capital by 6.2% to TRY613m, first announced in April 2012. Recall that under the deal, AKSEN will sell the issued shares to GS at $2.94 per share. GS will also own a put option with a strike price of $2.94/share to return shares to AKSEN. The transaction will have no impact on the current share price.

 

ASELS (N/R) => State Tender Institution will require the Turkish Armed Forces Foundation and its subsidiaries to hold tenders for its procurements, according to daily Zaman. Negative for Asels.

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AKBNK Akbank Hedef Fiyat

*GARANTİ YATIRIM, AKBANK İÇİN TAVSİYESİNİ 'TUT'DAN 'AL'A YÜKSELTTİ

*GARANTİ YATIRIM, AKBANK İÇİN FİYAT HEDEFİNİ 7.55 TL'DEN 8.70 TL'YE ÇIKARDI

SOCIETE GENERALE - Türk Bankaları tavsiyeleri..

AKBANK ICIN FIYAT HEDEFINI 5.4 TL'DEN 6.8 TL'YE YUKSELTTI, TAVSIYE: SAT

HALKBANK ICIN FIYAT HEDEFINI 17.6 TL'DEN 17.8 TL'YE YUKSELTTI, TAVSIYE: AL

YAPI KREDI ICIN FIYAT HEDEFINI 3.3 TL'DEN 4.8 TL'YE YUKSELTTI, TAVSIYE: TUT

IS BANKASI ICIN TAVSIYESINI SAT'TAN TUT'A, FIYAT HEDEFINI 3.7 TL'DEN 5.6 TL'YE YUKSELTTI

VAKIFBANK ICIN FIYAT HEDEFINI 3.7 TL'DEN 4.5 TL'YE YUKSELTTI, TAVSIYE AL

GARANTI BANKASI ICIN TAVSIYESINI TUT'TAN AL'A, FIYAT HEDEFINI 7.6 TL'DEN 8.8 TL'YE YUKSELTTI