13 Şubat 2013 Çarşamba

Buy - Sell

·         CAD (Dec) @ 10am > TEB-BNPP & Cons @ -$5.4bn, 12-month @ $50.7bn (6.3% of GDP)
·         TSKB (BUY; TP: 2.67) 4Q12 Strong Core Perform > 4Q12 bank-only NI @ TL68m (flattish q-q & -6% y-y), 16.0% Q’ly ROE. 2012FY12 NI @ TL307m +20% y-y & 20% ROE. NIM c.+40bp q-q => backed by +VE contribution from CPI linkers. (adj for CPI-linkers +15bp q-q). Guides -30bp y-y NIM in FY13 (in line => due to drop in bond rates & tougher competition in loans). Loan spread +30bp q-q to 3.7% => helped NIM vs 3Q. Achieved 13.8% y-y FX adj loan growth in FY12. Mgmt exp 15% y-y FX adj loan growth in FY13 (inline). Strong asset quality maintained in 4Q12, but mgmt expects some tolerable NPL inflow in 1Q13 => we exp 15bp specific cost-of-risk ratio for FY13. Opex @ 12% y-y in FY12. Mgmt guides 9%-10% y-y opex in FY13 (inline). Plans at least 20% divi pay-out (2.36% yield) => if BRSA allows, may climb up to 30% (~3.5% yield). Mgmt projects 17%-18% ROE for FY13 (TEB-BNPP:17.3%). NET/NET: Conservative guidance for FY13 & possible NPL inflow expectations in 1Q13 might put some pressure in short-term. Trading @ 8.1x 2013E P/E & 1.3x P/BV multiples & 17.3% ROE in FY13 (higher vs sector avg @ 15%) => maintain BUY.
·         HALKB (HOLD, TP TL21.30) > 4Q12 results today. TEB-BNPP NI @ TL708m (+40% y/y and +18% q/q) Cons @ TL711m. We expect slight mkt share gains in loans and deposits and foresee a lower-than-sector 21bp q-q improvement in loan-deposit spread. However, CPI-linked bonds should allow for 116bp q-q expansion in NIM. Widening in FX & trading-adjusted NIM should be lower @ 63bp q-q due to lower trading gains. We expect a 3bp q-q drop in net CoR and flat q-q NPL ratio. We forecast fees to rise @ steady pace of 12% y-y but opex to rise sharply by 25% due to personnel and marketing expenses for bank’s new credit card brand. We est an 18% q-q increase in NI, leading to an improvement in ROE to 25% from 22% in 3Q12. Conference call @ 17:30 Istanbul time.

·         AEFES (HOLD; TP TL28,80) > Heineken announced FY12 financial results => Vols in Russia, grew in low-double digits, resulting in a mkt share gain of 170 bps to 13.4% at end 2012 (based on Russian beer production data). The Co has also commented on increased profitability in Russia. Comment: Early to drive firm conclusions for AEFES but it seems Heineken will continue its existing competitive pricing policy in Russia which may continue to hurt overall market dynamics   
·         EREGL (HOLD, TP TL2.68) > CMB approved EREGL’s application for TL bond issuance worth up to TL500m to qualified investors. Comment: Neutral; expected. Bonds will replace some of EREGL’s outstanding TL bank loans (~TL1b out of total banking loans of TL4.7b at end 3Q12). Unlikely to bear lower rates than the bank borrowings but will help diversify funding sources. We believe bonds are likely to be sold to qualified investors only (int’l mostly), as TR banks seem to be crowding out the domestic retail mkt with much larger offerings.
·         TATKS (HOLD; TP TL2.52) > Applied to the CMB to issue a TL50m corp bond as planned/announced earlier. The company is trying to gain more flexibility with its financial debt.
·         EKGYO (NR) > Will hold a tender to select a broker for its SPO on March 14 @ 14:30, according to an official filing. The amount according the CEO’s recent announcement could be as high as TL4bn (1.3bn new shares).

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