· TTKOM (transfer of coverage) > 4Q12 NI @ TL600m (+1% y/y, - 6% q/q), -4% below TL622m cons. 4Q12 Consol EBITDA @ TL1,292m (+4% y/y, -1% q/q), sl. above TL1,281mn cons. 4Q12 Fxd business sluggish: Rev sl above cons, 4Q12 EBITDA 5% below. Stable number of ADSL sub (4th consecutive Q) => concern. NET/NET: Fxd rev +8% y/y (+1% y/y w/o construction rev), EBITDA almost flat (-1% y/y) @ TL1,0989m & EBITDA mrg @ 44% in 4Q12 with -4.3pps y/y. W/o low mrg construction rev & expenses, y/y EBITDA decline & EBITDA mrg => -4% & -2.3pps, resp. Mobile surprised +vely: 4% better than expected 4Q rev & much better EBITDA => 25% above consensus even after adj for TL35-40m one-off reversal income. Mobile sub +300K/4Q12 to 13.5m vs a total of 400K/9M12. Mobile ARPU incr’d impressively by 10% y/y. NET/NET: Mobile voice ARPU improvement & growing sub => indication of easing price competition => +VE for TCELL. Will pay out 68.95kr/share divi (92% payout ratio- inline) => 9.3% yield.
· TOASO (HOLD, TP TL11.5) > 4Q12 NI TL126m (House/Cons @ TL105m & TL113m) & EBITDA TL227m (House/Cons @ TL184m & TL200m). Beat on operating level with 27% y/y rise in EBITDA on better pricing in dom mkt and one-off warranty income (TL1.8 vs TL31.6m exp in 3Q12 and TL12.3m exp in 4Q11 probably on change in assumptions for whole year). Balance sheet stronger, as net cash increased to TL529m in Dec-12 from TL342m in Sep-12 while account receivables remained low. ST impact +ve, but LT prospects more important. Our cautious stance re mrgns/vols for next Minicargo invest cycle holds but we believe TOASO has chance to secure entry-level passenger car production mandates, which if realized- would reduce concerns to a certain extent. Co will hold an analyst meeting today.
· AKBNK (HOLD, TP TL10.76) > 4Q12 results today. We est TRY995m net profit in 4Q12 (+28% q-q and +81% y-y), sl above mkt consensus est of TRY984m (CNBC-e consensus). We forecast a better-than-sector 65bp q-q improvement in total L/D spread. However, limited contribution from CPI-linked bonds due to the bank’s accounting methodology should limit NIM expansion by 37bp q-q. We expect lower swap costs to be offset by lower trading gains. We see a limited 7bp q-q rise in net CoR on the back of a 21bp q-q rise in NPL ratio adjusted for portfolio sales, which should lead to a TRY95m one-off gain. Headline NPL ratio should improve to 1.2%. We forecast fees & opex to have risen by 14% and 20% y-y, respectively, in line with 3Q12 trends. We est a 28% q-q increase in net income, the second-highest increase of the banks we cover, leading to a further improvement in ROE, to 19% from 16% in 3Q12. Akbank will hold an Audio Web-Cast at 17:45 Istanbul time available at the following
· TAVHL (BUY, TL TL14.60) > Highlights from Haberturk columnist re new airport: New airport might take anywhere between 4-10 years to open but hard to estimate given construction and financial challenge. Gov’t will need to make as much as EUR100m/annum in compensation payments to operators, as revs from direct passenger fees in first few years at the new airport will be below guaranteed amount of EUR316m. TAVHL likely to ask for at least EUR400m compensation/yr if airport opened before 2021. Comment > Ambiguity on start date highlights challenges. Compensation payments to the operator of the new airport however likely to be less than columnist argues and depends to a very large extent on operation start date and growth assumptions in traffic for Istanbul. We estimate TAVHL will ask for roughly EUR450m per annum in compensation for Istanbul Ataturk should the new airport be opened before 2021.