· TRAKYA CAM (TP=TL2.22/share)... As the biggest flat glass producer in Turkey, Trakya Cam’s domestic market revenues are closely dependent on the construction sector which grew by an average of 1.6% in 1Q12 and 2Q12 following a brilliant performance in 2011 and 2012 (avg. quarterly growth =14.2%). Euro-zone related problems also affected the company badly on the export front. Due to weak demand, Trakya Cam was not able to increase its prices except its regular April revision of 4-5%. On the cost side, recent natural gas price hikes will reduce operational margins by 1pp. In light of these changes, we revise down our 2012YE revenues from TL1.3bn to TL1.2bn, 2012YE EBITDA margin from 22% to 20% and full-year earnings from TL148mn to TL90mn. We also cut our target price by 11% to TL2.22/share and maintain our “Hold” rating. For 3Q12, we expect Trakya Cam to record TL284mn of revenues and TL64mn of EBITDA (EBITDA margin=23%); we estimate a bottom line figure of TL22mn, indicating a 70% drop on y/y basis and 42% drop on q/q basis.
· ANADOLU CAM (TP=TL2.64/share)... Although the growth outlook for Anadolu Cam is still gloomy due to competition in Turkey and regulations in the Russian alcoholic beverage market, the company will be able to meet its revenue target of TL1.6bn, in
our view. As a result of increasing cost pressure in the domestic market, we revised our EBITDA margin estimate down for 2012 and 2013 by 1pps from 23% to 22%. The effect of our new cost of equity (14.4%, down from 15.3%) and revision in EBITDA margin assumptions cancel each other out and we keep our target price at TL2.64/share and maintain our “Hold” rating since the stock offers only 1% return with no near-term catalysts. As for 3Q12, we expect Anadolu Cam to record TL450mn of revenues and TL109mn of EBITDA (EBITDA margin=24%); we estimate a bottom line figure of TL32mn, indicating a 19% drop on y/y basis and 17% increase on q/q basis.
· Pasabahce and SISECAM (TP=TL2.54/share)... In addition to Trakya Cam, Pasabahce, the glassware arm of Sisecam group, which comprises 21% of the total NAV, is expected to miss its top line and margin targets for 2012. We estimate Pasabahce to close 2012FY with revenues of TL1.3bn (+1% y/y increase) down from our previous estimate of TL1.4bn; we also cut our EBITDA margin estimate from 19% to 17% on the back of natural gas price hikes based on company guidance. At the consolidated level, we revise down Sisecam’s 2012FY consolidated revenues from TL5.9bn to TL5.6bn and EBITDA margin from 23% to 21%, thus we cut our FY2012 net earnings estimate by 42% to TL322mn from TL545mn. Following our downgrade to “Hold” on 22 May 2012, the stock has gained only 6%; in terms of NAV the stock trades at only 16% discount, 10pps higher than 7-year historical average of 26%. Since the subsidiaries are not in a good shape due to cost pressure and limited top-line growth potential we maintain our “Hold” rating on the stock and slightly revise down our target price by 4% to TL2.54/share. As for 3Q12, we expect Sisecam to record TL1.35bn of revenues and TL313mn of EBITDA (EBITDA margin=23%); we estimate a bottom line figure of TL111mn, indicating a 39% drop on y/y basis and 6% increase on q/q basis.
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