27 Şubat 2013 Çarşamba

Buy - Sell

1.                   Yapi Kredi Bank, Sabah claims, has admitted that it was “the bank” that had suggested this “gentlemen’s agreement”.
2.                   Sabah also mentioned that three banks were allegedly blamed for forming a “cartel” and these are Akbank, Yapi Kredi Bank and Garanti Bank.
3.                   Reportedly, banks are ready to pay a cumulated sum of TRY1b, which according to Sabah could reach TL5bn if the allegations prove correct. We think the fine could amount to TL150-200mn for each large bank.
Note this is a press report in Sabah and nothing official has been announced. Would consider it pure speculation at this point. Also note, the CA’s decision will be announced on March 12 at 2 PM.
·         FROTO (HOLD)> 4Q12 slightly better, EBITDA beats estimates:  NI @ TL 199m in 4Q12 (+28% y-y, our estimate: TL192m, CNBC-e consensus: TL166m). EBITDA @ TL220m (+18% y-y, our estimate: TL204m, cons: TL203m). Beat driven by slightly better domestic pricing (was hinted by TOASO 4Q12) &  one-off items at OPEX level. Employee expense capitalization (++), R&D expense increase (-) SG&A personnel expense @ TL2.5m (4Q11: TRY16m) => it capitalized personnel expenses related to new investments. R&D/ revenue ratio incr’d from 0.7pp in 4Q11 to 1.3pp in 4Q12 (TRY14m increase). In net, OPEX was TL10m below than our estimate. Ford Otosan reported TL10m tax income in 4Q12 (our estimate: +TL18m). Analyst meeting on Friday.

·         BAGFS (NR) > 4Q12 NI TL2m vs cons TL8mn. Weak results on back of weak DAP prices and rising input costs. Will distribute TL0.89/sh cash div on May 31 (1.6% div yield)  
·         EKGYO (NR) > Held tender for its Korfezkent 3rd stage project to be built by Public Procurement Model (c.1,200 units). 8 bidders indicated relatively strong demand after cancellation of EKGYO’s Avcilar tender last week. EKGYO’s estimate cost of the project @ ~TL110m vs lowest bid @ TL96m. Emlak will bear all risks and responsibilities associated with the financing, development and sales of the project.
·         THYAO (BUY, TP TL8.46) > No accord reached in collective bargaining negotiations between mgmt and labour union Hava Is. Hava Is wants THYAO to reemploy the personnel laid off last year, a demand which the mgmt rejects. The arbitrator will submit a report regarding negotiations to Ministry of Labour. Likelihood of strike or escalation not likely at this point. No impact on stock price expected.

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