News
The Turkish
Auto Distributors’ Association (ODD) published passenger car (PC) and light
commercial vehicle (LCV) sales volume data for December 2012. Total market
volumes (PC+ LCV) contracted by 10% in December. PC volumes were down 9% yoy,
while LCV volumes were down 11% yoy. This implies 10% yoy contraction for
total volumes for the year and 5% yoy contraction for 4Q12.
Analysis
December is an
important month in terms of overall sales, representing c.15% of total sales
made during the year. The month’s data implies 10% yoy contraction vs. our
estimate of 5% yoy contraction for the market for the full year. In our view,
earlier than expected end of campaigns to compensate for the autos special
consumption tax (SCT) increase (came into effect in October) is one of the
factors contributing to this.
On a
relative basis, December was a positive month for Tofas (Buy, CEEMEA Focus
List), which increased market share to 13.2% in December from 11.9% in
November, growing its volumes by 79% m-o-m vs. 61% for the overall market.
Both Dogus Oto and Ford Otosan lost market share: Ford Otosan share stood at
14.1% in December vs. 15% in November and Dogus Oto share fell to 13.6% from
18.2%. For the full-year 2012, Dogus Oto is the market leader at 16%,
followed by Ford Otosan at 14% and Tofas at 13%.
Implications
From Tofas’
perspective, we see the market data as neutral; despite contracting market
volumes yoy, the company managed to increase its share on a positive mom
trend. On the back of our economists’ expectation of 5.2% GDP growth and
easing domestic credit conditions for 2013, we continue to expect volume
recovery of 12% yoy this year for the total Turkish autos market. Tofas
remains our top pick in this space and we retain it on the CEEMEA Focus List
as a Buy. Our price target is unchanged.
G.Sachs
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