The increase in special consumption taxes (SCT) for oil
products on Sep. 22 have only been in motor vehicle fuels, namely gasoline,
diesel and auto-LPG. The increase has been the same at TRY0.30 per liter
(TRY0.35 including VAT) for each of the three products. The rate of increase in
SCTs have been different (from 16% for gasoline to 24% for auto-LPG) due to
different existing SCTs for these products. From what we can see, fuel
distribution companies have immediately increased their respective recommended
maximum pump prices for these products on the same date the increases became
effective (Sep. 22). This is the first time SCTs on motor vehicle fuels have
risen since end-2009.
Comment: We estimate the increases in taxes are negative only to a significantly limited extent for Turkish downstream oil companies (Tupras, Aygaz, Petrol Ofisi, Turcas). We estimate Tupras and the fuel distribution companies have immediately reflected the SCT increases fully in their sales prices. We estimate they will continue doing so and the negative impact will be mostly limited to their volumes in relatively small percentages, assuming the government will not allow the black market to expand significantly due to increased taxes.
Comment: We estimate the increases in taxes are negative only to a significantly limited extent for Turkish downstream oil companies (Tupras, Aygaz, Petrol Ofisi, Turcas). We estimate Tupras and the fuel distribution companies have immediately reflected the SCT increases fully in their sales prices. We estimate they will continue doing so and the negative impact will be mostly limited to their volumes in relatively small percentages, assuming the government will not allow the black market to expand significantly due to increased taxes.