12 Kasım 2013 Salı


Weak performance by int’l & Turkish brewery operations
In 3Q13, Anadolu Efes posted TRY164m in net income, below us (TRY175m) but above consensus (TRY145m). Operating income (EBITDA) was TRY573m, below our TRY622m and below consensus’s TRY598m. Turkish operations were better, but international operations were much weaker, than our estimates

Lower unit sales and high opex led to lower international profits
The decline in unit sales was 8.2% y-y in Turkish operations and 6.9% y-y internationally. While international EBITDA declined 47% on a weak pricing environment and cost pressures, Turkish EBITDA increased 24% thanks to lower opex and higher unit prices. As a result, international EBITDA margin declined 7.80ppt to 13.5% while Turkish EBITDA margin increased 5.7ppt to 35.4%.

Cutting TP by 2%, maintain HOLD
We cut our consolidated EBITDA and net income estimates by 6% and 16% for 2013 and 2014.

Cut volume estimates
We cut our volume estimates by 2ppt to -11% for Turkish operations and by 2ppt to -4% (-14% organic) for international operations. We cut our international EBITDA margin estimate 300bp to 15.4%.

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