DOGUS OTOMOTIV - Dividends pour: BUY

Strong results beats our estimates, in-line with consensus
In 4Q12, Dogus Otomotiv reported TRY47m in net profit (+41% y-y), in-line with CNBC-e consensus, but above our TRY40m estimate. Revenue of TRY1,539m (+15% y-y) was in-line with our estimate (consensus: TRY1,463m). EBITDA increased by 34% y-y to TRY74m (our estimate: TRY69m, consensus: TRY74m).

We raise our market share estimate
In 2M13, Dogus Otomotiv increased its market share in the Light Vehicle (LV) market 3.2pp y-y to 18.5%. We raise our 2013 Light Vehicle market share estimate to 15.4% from 14.8%, and normalized LV market share estimate from 13.5% to 14%. Our 2013E EPS is raised 4.8% on the back of our higher revenue estimates.

BUY maintained, SoTP-based TP revised up to TRY11.40
We raise our 12-m TP to TRY11.40 (previous: TRY10.50) reflecting higher valuations for participations, and higher normalized market share estimates. Renegotiation of the pricing strategy with VW on less favourable terms and measures by the government against increasing the share of imported passenger cars are the major downside risks.

2013E DPS very strong, beneficiary of improving macro
Dogus Otomotiv announced a TRY1.00/share (9.8% yield) dividend for 2013, significantly beating our estimate at TRY0.57/share. Net debt as of Dec-12 was TRY555m. Dogus Otomotiv is among the beneficiaries of the improving macro environment in Turkey. As a pure domestic player, it is highly leveraged to GDP growth and easing interest rates, and benefits from the ongoing shift to imported passenger cars thanks to its strong position in the segment. Dogus Otomotiv will hold an analyst meeting today to discuss 2012 results and 2013 expectations.

 

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