28 Ocak 2013 Pazartesi

Turkey - Morning Notes

Istanbul Ataturk will be shut down for scheduled flights after new airport is operational. DHMI (State Airport Authority) General Manager Mr Orhan Birdal was quoted by daily Zaman as stating that all scheduled flights would be shifted from Istanbul Ataturk Airport (IAA) to the new airport when the new airport becomes operational and that IAA would only serve charter, cargo and training flights afterwards. Mr Birdal said until the new airport gets ready, they would seek to create new parking space at IAA and in that respect have made good progress in talks with army to get army occupied spot in the airport. Mr Birdal reminded that as the current operator of IAA, TAV Airports’ (OW, target TRY11.5) rights would be protected when new airport is opened. Finally, Mr Bridal also said they expected total airport passengers in Turkey to grow 11% in 2013 reaching 144m from 130m in 2012.  

Turkish banks’ Q4 result announcements will start this week with Garanti. Garanti Bank will announce its Q4 2012 results on 31 January. Among the banks under HSBC coverage, HSBC forecast one of the highest q-o-q NIM expansion figures (up by c180bps) for Garanti Bank, mainly owing to higher CPI-linker yields. Hence, HSBC foresees a 63% q-o-q rise in the NII for Garanti. However, due to a very high trading income base from Q3 (TRY452m) and HSBC’s relatively lower trading income forecast of TRY66m, HSBC foresees the rise in adj. NII at only 21% q-o-q. Asset quality related expenses will continue to be a drag in earnings growth similar to peers for Garanti in Q4. All in all, HSBC foresees a net income of TRY856m for Garanti, implying an 8% y-o-y and 17% q-o-q earnings growth in Q4. For the banks under HSBC coverage, Q4 earnings will be defined by 1) rising loan to deposit spread, 2) increasing in CPI-linker yields, 3) some NPL sale revenues, on the positive side; and ongoing deterioration in the asset quality and rise in the related expenses. HSBC expects 33% y-o-y and 25% q-o-q earnings growth from the banks under HSBC coverage in Q4.

Sabanci says Carrefoursa mandate remains valid. Sabanci Holding (OW, target TRY12.0) made an announcement reiterating efforts to pursue strategic options for food retail JV, Carrefoursa. Sabanci said their mandate for consultancy signed on 9 December 2012 remains valid today with no solid  outcome/decision yet. Sabanci owns a 40% stake in Carrefoursa and either wants to sell its shares or buy out Carrefour’s 60% JV stake with an aim to turnaround the loss-making operations.

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