Deprem için kurumlar vergisi...

Meclis’te görüşülen kanuna eklenen bir madde ile kurumlar vergisi indirim ve istisnalarından yararlanan şirketlere 2022 yılındaki teşviklerinden tek seferlik %10 deprem vergisi alınacak. Yaklaşık 22 bin şirketin bu düzenlemeden etkileneceği tahmin ediliyor. 

Yeni vergi şirketlerin VUK’a göre düzenlenmiş finansalları üzerinden hesaplanacağından, UFRS finansallarındaki yeniden değerlemeden kaynaklanan ertelenmiş vergi gelirleri bu hesaplamada dikkate alınmayabilir.

Vergi teşviklerinden yararlanan FROTO, VESBE, SISE, ARCLK, LOGO, TOASO, TCELL, TTKOM ENJSA, SASA, TUPRS, EREGL, ISDMR ve ASELS

Daily Bulletin - Fri, Sep 4, 2015‏

STRATEGY

 

·    Global equities are being sold pre-U.S Aug NFP release. Nikkei (-2.2%), Hang Seng (-2.1%), India Sensex (-1.7%) and Korea Kospi (-1.5%) lead the sell-off.  MSCI Asia Pacific index is trading down 1.2%. S&P futures are pointing to 0.8% down opening.

 

·    EM FX sell-off is intensifying with stories in the Brazilian press about the make-up of the government (BRL -4.3% vs USD this week) – CEEMEA currencies also under pressure this week with RUB (-2.8%) , ZAR (-2.8) and TRY (-2.3%)

 

Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi (TOASO.IS): Off CEEMEA Focus List post strong performance; remains Buy

INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP: Pan-Europe Buy List COVERAGE VIEW: NEUTRAL
What's changed   We remove Tofas from the CEEMEA Focus List following outperformance. Since July 1, 2012 Tofas shares have gained 74% (in USD terms), outperforming the MSCI EM EMEA Index by 68%, leaving upside potential to our 12-month price target below that of Q1 upside within the CEEMEA space. Over the last 12 months, the stock is up 73%, outperforming the MSCI EM EMEA Index by 83%. Our new 12-month price target is YTL16.1 (from YTL15.9), implying potential upside of 20%. Implications   While the potential upside to our price target is now more limited following the stock re-rating on the economy accelerating, we maintain our constructive view. We believe that the company will continue to benefit from stable profitability provided by the ‘pay’ side of the take or pay agreements on its exports volumes despite sluggish demand in Europe, with EBITDA margins remaining above peers in the next 2 years. In a recovering domestic market, we expect Tofas to be a beneficiary with volume growth of 8%/13% in 2013/14. Our new 2013/14 EBITDA estimates increase 1%/4%.

TOFAS OTOMOBIL - Turning cautious: HOLD

Downgrading to HOLD on share performance
Take-or-pay agreements are a blessing amid weak European demand. However, the recovery in European markets is likely to take time, which might impact the long-term prospects of Tofas during its next investment cycle for Minicargo. Also, considering the strong performance YTD (41% outperformance vs. XU100), we downgrade our rating to HOLD from BUY.

Negotiation for new take-or-pay agreements might start soon
Take-or-pay agreements with PSA/Fiat for Minicargo are valid until end-2015. Considering the weak financial position of PSA and possible political sensitivity given that the French government might take seats on PSA’s board, we expect PSA to seek a better deal (lower volume commitment, lower price) during the new investment cycle for Minicargo.

Our blended target price is TRY10.50/share
We increase our TP to TRY10.50, rolling over valuation (+), reflecting higher peer multiples (+), lower CoE (+), lower capex (+), but lower export estimates beyond 2015 (-), and lower normalized EBITDA margin estimate (current: 9.3%, previous: 9.8%) (-). A new product mandate by Fiat, and a fast pick-up in European demand after 2014 are upside risks.

We are cautious, but upside surprises are also possible
Our FY13E DPS is TRY0.80/share (7.3% yield), close to our yield for Ford Otosan (8.0%). We expect the share price to be strong in the short term due to inclusion in the MSCI Turkey index by end-November, and strong dividend prospects, followed by an overhang on uncertainty beyond 2015. Despite our cautious stance, we are not too bearish, as we believe: 1) the risk of non-renewal of the deal with PSA is limited, barring a major intervention by the French government; 2) a new PC mandate amid Fiat’s build-on-growth turnaround strategy is possible; 3) despite a delay in the Doblo deal for the US, we are now more positive, given Fiat’s recent comments on strategic importance of an enlarged LCV portfolio in the US.

Buy - Sell

·    FROTO (HOLD, TP: TL 17.4): Ford Motor Company (FMC) announced on Oct 25 it expects a $1.5b+ loss from European ops in 2012 & therefore announced a restructuring program (prev: $1b+ loss=> Will close 3 European facilities (Southampton, Genk, Tooling & stamping operations in Dagenham), decreasing European capacity by 18% (gross annual savings of $450m -500m)=> Transit assembly plant in Southampton (c.28k Transit production in 2011) to be closed & Transit production to be consolidated in Kocaeli/Turkey (est. 2H13) => Transit has highest rev/vehicle & highest mrg w/i FROTO’s portfolio => assuming incremental 25k units (9% of 2012E production) & no incremental Capex need => c.+10% on our DCF val for FROTO (to be partially negated by worsening outlook on mrg for 2013 than our current est indicate). Following relocation decision, FROTO might need to adjust capacity allocation b/w basic Transit models (160k units as of 2014) & Transit/ Tourneo Custom (130k units) => to have a balanced CUR b/w 2 lines in l/t => will recheck production numbers & Capex requirement if any. Restructuring plan of FMC can also facilitate more competitive pricing for PC ops of FROTO in mid-term => -VE trend in mrg of FROTO is not only driven by its ageing LCV product portfolio, but also uncompetitive pricing against VW brands in PC. NET/NET: +VE for FROTO given weakening outlook for 2013 => however we believe market was already partially pricing some positive developments on new sourcing arrangements. DIVIDEND: FROTO TRY0.65/share divi on Oct 31.

 

    Opel - PSA announcement & TOASO (BUY; TL9.25) > On Oct 24, Opel and PSA announced key steps in their global strategic alliance which includes next steps in joint purchasing organization, and four common vehicle platform development projects. The Alliance aims to launch the first vehicles on these common programs by end-2016. Impact on Tofas => possibly limited, but unconfirmed for now: we believe the most critical item that could impact Tofas could be the joint program for a compact-class Multi-Purpose Van

Tofas newsflow

Tofas (TOASO TI, BUY) CEO Kamil Basaran reiterated that the company is working on a couple of new projects (which we assume to include Doblo  project for the US, the domestic passenger project, and the Minicargo project). The company is hopeful that Tofas could take a role in the production of new product line-up of Fiat- Chrysler.  The work on Doblo export project to the US continues.  The CEO reiterates the difficulty of achieving 40% Value Add in auto sector, which Basaran views as an obstacle for auto investments to be classified as strategic investments.  Compared to the previous comments, the company sounded more cautious on the prospect of investing in so-called “domestic car” due to financial feasibility.  Our view: The more cautious view on “domestic car” project can disappoint some investors, however we like the continued high focus on return potential for new projects.

Tofaş Fabrika - Teknik Analiz

Orta vadeli yükselen hareket içinde bulunan hissede, ana destek noktası olarak 8,00 seviyesi ön plana çıkmaktadır. Olası geri çekilmelerde bu seviyenin altına inilmediği sürece, teknik açıdan düşüşlerin orta vadeli hareket içinde oluşan ara düzeltme hareketleri olarak kalmasını, yükseliş eğiliminin korunmasını beklemekteyiz. Bu nedenle, 8,00 seviyesini stop loss kabul edip hissede geri çekilmelerin alış yönünde değerlendirilebileceğini düşünmekteyiz. 8,40, 8,32 ve 8,20 seviyeleri ara destek noktaları olarak etkili olacaktır. Geri çekilme hareketi içinde 8,00 seviyesindeki desteğin bozulması durumunda, satış baskısının artmasını beklediğimizden alınan pozisyonların kapatılması doğru olacağı söylenebilir.

 

Ana direnç olarak ise yılın en yüksek seviyesi olan 8,86 seviyesini takip etmekte, 8,00 seviyesinin altına inilmediği sürece, geri çekilmelerin sınırlı kalmasını beklediğimiz hissede, bu seviyenin üzerinde orta vadeli hareket içinde ilk etapta Ağustos ayına başlarken test edilen 8,86 seviyelerinin önümüzdeki süreçte yeniden deneneceğini düşünmekteyiz. Daha orta vade yükselen hareket içinde hedef olarak sırasıyla 9,48 ve 10,20 seviyeleri gösterilebilir. Ara direnç noktaları olarak 8,56, 8,68 ve 8,80 seviyeleri izlenebilir.

 

Yukarı ataklarda realizasyon için de ilk etapta 8,86 seviyelerine doğru hareketlenmelere bakılabilir. Bu seviyenin aşılması halinde, realizasyon için sırasıyla 9,48 ve 10,20 seviyeleri gözlenebilir.