Credit Suisse Tavsiye Listesi

• Anadolu efes için fiyat hedefini 22.50 tl’den 22.70 tl’ye yükseltti tavsıye nötr.
• Coca cola içecek için fiyat hedefini 57 tl’den 43.40 tl’ye düşürdü, tavsıye outperform.
• Bim için fiyat hedefini 44.05 tl’den 50.70 tl’ye yükseltti, tavsıye nötr.
• Migros için fiyat hedefini 27.05 tl’den 23.40 tl’ye düşürdü, tavsıye outperform.
• Arçelik için fiyat hedefini 13.20 tl’den 12.20 tl’ye düşürdü, tavsıye underperform.
• Ford otosan için fiyat hedefini 35 tl’den 32.60 tl’ye düşürdü, tavsıye nötr.
• Tofaş için fiyat hedefini 19.20 tl’den 21.20 tl’ye yükseltti, tavsıye outperform.
• Koç holding için fiyat hedefini 12.30 tl’den 12.48 tl’ye yükseltti, tavsıye nötr.
• Pegasus havayolları için fiyat hedefini 25.90 tl’den 19.80 tl’ye düşürdü, tavsıye nötr.
• Thy için fiyat hedefini 10.80 tl’den 9.50 tl’ye düşürdü, tavsıye outperform.

Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi (TOASO.IS): Market share gain for Tofas offsets weak market data in December

INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP: Pan-Europe Buy List COVERAGE VIEW: NEUTRAL
News The Turkish Auto Distributors’ Association (ODD) published passenger car (PC) and light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales volume data for December 2012. Total market volumes (PC+ LCV) contracted by 10% in December. PC volumes were down 9% yoy, while LCV volumes were down 11% yoy. This implies 10% yoy contraction for total volumes for the year and 5% yoy contraction for 4Q12.   Analysis   December is an important month in terms of overall sales, representing c.15% of total sales made during the year. The month’s data implies 10% yoy contraction vs. our estimate of 5% yoy contraction for the market for the full year. In our view, earlier than expected end of campaigns to compensate for the autos special consumption tax (SCT) increase (came into effect in October) is one of the factors contributing to this.

TOFAS OTOMOBIL - Turning cautious: HOLD

Downgrading to HOLD on share performance
Take-or-pay agreements are a blessing amid weak European demand. However, the recovery in European markets is likely to take time, which might impact the long-term prospects of Tofas during its next investment cycle for Minicargo. Also, considering the strong performance YTD (41% outperformance vs. XU100), we downgrade our rating to HOLD from BUY.

Negotiation for new take-or-pay agreements might start soon
Take-or-pay agreements with PSA/Fiat for Minicargo are valid until end-2015. Considering the weak financial position of PSA and possible political sensitivity given that the French government might take seats on PSA’s board, we expect PSA to seek a better deal (lower volume commitment, lower price) during the new investment cycle for Minicargo.

Our blended target price is TRY10.50/share
We increase our TP to TRY10.50, rolling over valuation (+), reflecting higher peer multiples (+), lower CoE (+), lower capex (+), but lower export estimates beyond 2015 (-), and lower normalized EBITDA margin estimate (current: 9.3%, previous: 9.8%) (-). A new product mandate by Fiat, and a fast pick-up in European demand after 2014 are upside risks.

We are cautious, but upside surprises are also possible
Our FY13E DPS is TRY0.80/share (7.3% yield), close to our yield for Ford Otosan (8.0%). We expect the share price to be strong in the short term due to inclusion in the MSCI Turkey index by end-November, and strong dividend prospects, followed by an overhang on uncertainty beyond 2015. Despite our cautious stance, we are not too bearish, as we believe: 1) the risk of non-renewal of the deal with PSA is limited, barring a major intervention by the French government; 2) a new PC mandate amid Fiat’s build-on-growth turnaround strategy is possible; 3) despite a delay in the Doblo deal for the US, we are now more positive, given Fiat’s recent comments on strategic importance of an enlarged LCV portfolio in the US.

Tofas newsflow

Tofas (TOASO TI, BUY) CEO Kamil Basaran reiterated that the company is working on a couple of new projects (which we assume to include Doblo  project for the US, the domestic passenger project, and the Minicargo project). The company is hopeful that Tofas could take a role in the production of new product line-up of Fiat- Chrysler.  The work on Doblo export project to the US continues.  The CEO reiterates the difficulty of achieving 40% Value Add in auto sector, which Basaran views as an obstacle for auto investments to be classified as strategic investments.  Compared to the previous comments, the company sounded more cautious on the prospect of investing in so-called “domestic car” due to financial feasibility.  Our view: The more cautious view on “domestic car” project can disappoint some investors, however we like the continued high focus on return potential for new projects.

Tofaş Fabrika - Teknik Analiz

Orta vadeli yükselen hareket içinde bulunan hissede, ana destek noktası olarak 8,00 seviyesi ön plana çıkmaktadır. Olası geri çekilmelerde bu seviyenin altına inilmediği sürece, teknik açıdan düşüşlerin orta vadeli hareket içinde oluşan ara düzeltme hareketleri olarak kalmasını, yükseliş eğiliminin korunmasını beklemekteyiz. Bu nedenle, 8,00 seviyesini stop loss kabul edip hissede geri çekilmelerin alış yönünde değerlendirilebileceğini düşünmekteyiz. 8,40, 8,32 ve 8,20 seviyeleri ara destek noktaları olarak etkili olacaktır. Geri çekilme hareketi içinde 8,00 seviyesindeki desteğin bozulması durumunda, satış baskısının artmasını beklediğimizden alınan pozisyonların kapatılması doğru olacağı söylenebilir.

 

Ana direnç olarak ise yılın en yüksek seviyesi olan 8,86 seviyesini takip etmekte, 8,00 seviyesinin altına inilmediği sürece, geri çekilmelerin sınırlı kalmasını beklediğimiz hissede, bu seviyenin üzerinde orta vadeli hareket içinde ilk etapta Ağustos ayına başlarken test edilen 8,86 seviyelerinin önümüzdeki süreçte yeniden deneneceğini düşünmekteyiz. Daha orta vade yükselen hareket içinde hedef olarak sırasıyla 9,48 ve 10,20 seviyeleri gösterilebilir. Ara direnç noktaları olarak 8,56, 8,68 ve 8,80 seviyeleri izlenebilir.

 

Yukarı ataklarda realizasyon için de ilk etapta 8,86 seviyelerine doğru hareketlenmelere bakılabilir. Bu seviyenin aşılması halinde, realizasyon için sırasıyla 9,48 ve 10,20 seviyeleri gözlenebilir.

TOFAS FABRIKA / BUY (Maintained)

Eyeing new projects with upside and dividend prospects

 

·         Tofas’ 1H12 results did not bring in much of a surprise. The impact of a 22% decline in sales volume resulted in only a 6% decline in pre-tax earnings, thanks to the execution of the payment clause of the take-or-pay contracts.

·         Domestic passenger car and LCV demand declined by 19% in 1H12. We expect flat demand in 2H12 vs. 2H11 and expect an 10% contraction in 2012E. Tofas should benefit from the relative recovery with a market share of 14.3% and we find the company’s 2012E domestic sales volume target of 125k achievable (1H12A: 54.4k).

·         European demand has been weak resulting in several downward revisions to export guidance now standing at 170k (1H12A: 84.2k). The delay in North America export project is slightly negative in our view, while new markets such as South America and Russia (especially after the latter’s entry to WTO) may compensate for some of the shortfall in 2013E, in our opinion. Exports to N. America are expected to start in 2014E.

·         We expect headline earnings to fall by 1% in 2012E and rise by 8% in 2013E. Incorporating a lower risk-free rate of 9% into our valuation, we raise our 12-mth target price for Tofas to TL10.5/share from TL9.0/share before. With a 12-mth total return potential of 32% including a net dividend yield of 7%, we maintain BUY rating.

·         Tofas’ multiples are not demanding at 2013E P/E of 8.3x and EV/EBITDA of 4.2x. We continue to like the defensive nature of Tofas’ business thanks to the take-or-pay contracts. The expectation of lower interest rates also helps consumer sentiment and is positive for automotive demand. Tofas is currently working on new model projects which may bring further upside to valuation if they involve capacity expansion.

·         Key risks to our recommendation include stiff competition and adverse macroeconomic conditions lowering earnings. If the eagerly anticipated North America export agreement fails to be signed or if the company cannot replace the Minicargo and Linea with renewed versions of the same models or all-new models when their project life ends in 2015E, there would be downside risk to our valuation.