3Q12 operational results
lag conservative estimates
Ford Otosan reported net income of TRY144m in 3Q12 (-17% y-y, our estimate: TRY99m, CNBC-e consensus: TRY121m). EBITDA was TRY141m (-36% y-y, our estimate: TRY155m, consensus: TRY162m). Beat at the non-operating level was due to lower D&A than our forecast, TRY25m deferred tax income, and slightly lower financing expenses than our estimates.
We revise down our 2012-13E recurring EPS, revise-up 2014 EPS
We revise down our ‘12-13E recurring EPS by 13%/19% on the weakening outlook on operating margins and exports, while raising ‘14E EPS by 20% due to incremental Transit volumes from the UK, and lowered financing expense estimates. The expected improvement in operating performance in 2014 might limit the impact of a weak ST outlook on the share price.
We maintain our HOLD rating
Our revised 12-mth TP to TRY17.90/share reflects new volume allocation for Transit (+), lower CoE (+), higher peer multiples (+), worsening outlook in export markets (-), lower margin estimates due more severe impact of intense competition/ageing product portfolio in the short-term (-), and earlier phase-out of Transit Connect than our previous estimate (-).
Ford Otosan reported net income of TRY144m in 3Q12 (-17% y-y, our estimate: TRY99m, CNBC-e consensus: TRY121m). EBITDA was TRY141m (-36% y-y, our estimate: TRY155m, consensus: TRY162m). Beat at the non-operating level was due to lower D&A than our forecast, TRY25m deferred tax income, and slightly lower financing expenses than our estimates.
We revise down our 2012-13E recurring EPS, revise-up 2014 EPS
We revise down our ‘12-13E recurring EPS by 13%/19% on the weakening outlook on operating margins and exports, while raising ‘14E EPS by 20% due to incremental Transit volumes from the UK, and lowered financing expense estimates. The expected improvement in operating performance in 2014 might limit the impact of a weak ST outlook on the share price.
We maintain our HOLD rating
Our revised 12-mth TP to TRY17.90/share reflects new volume allocation for Transit (+), lower CoE (+), higher peer multiples (+), worsening outlook in export markets (-), lower margin estimates due more severe impact of intense competition/ageing product portfolio in the short-term (-), and earlier phase-out of Transit Connect than our previous estimate (-).