Daily Bulletin - Thu, Sep 3, 2015‏

Yesterday was a disappointing day for TRY investors carrying long positions. On a day, when Moody’s stated base case for Turkey is keeping investment grade rating, TRY-denominated assets could not rally.  Moody’s commentary could not even sustain a 5-minute short-covering rally in BIST. BIST closed the day flat, TRY basket and yields were higher.

 

·    Rising geopolitical risks (kidnappings in Baghdad + PKK terrorism), Koza Ipek Holding investigations and overall EM weakness may be perceived as the main reasons.

 

·    Turkey’s risk premium, 5-year CDS rose 8.1% in 2 trading days = worst performance in EM.

 

·    This morning, we expect a slightly higher opening for BIST equities just based on S&P500 close from last night. TRY basket is trading @ 5-day highs at 3.13 and traded above 3.14 yesterday despite positive Moody’s commentary.

 

·     August CPI print will be released at 8:00am London time – consensus = 0.11%. Expect tight range trading until U.S August NFP tomorrow.  

  

·     BIST100 short-term technicals:

• TRY : Support = 72.8k / 72.0k ; Resistance : 74.5k / 75.3k ; Last trade : 73.7k
• USD : Support = $24.8k / $24.5k ; Resistance : $25.2k (10-dma) / $25.9k ; Last trade : $25.0k

 

DOGUS OTOMOTIV - Dividends pour: BUY

Strong results beats our estimates, in-line with consensus
In 4Q12, Dogus Otomotiv reported TRY47m in net profit (+41% y-y), in-line with CNBC-e consensus, but above our TRY40m estimate. Revenue of TRY1,539m (+15% y-y) was in-line with our estimate (consensus: TRY1,463m). EBITDA increased by 34% y-y to TRY74m (our estimate: TRY69m, consensus: TRY74m).

We raise our market share estimate
In 2M13, Dogus Otomotiv increased its market share in the Light Vehicle (LV) market 3.2pp y-y to 18.5%. We raise our 2013 Light Vehicle market share estimate to 15.4% from 14.8%, and normalized LV market share estimate from 13.5% to 14%. Our 2013E EPS is raised 4.8% on the back of our higher revenue estimates.