Buy - Sell

·         CAPACITY UTIL RATE (FEB) > 14:30 TR; No cons. Jan @ 72.4%

 

·         CONSUMER LOANS +24.5% > the 13-week trend growth rate of consumer loans strengthened for the 4^thconsecutive week to 24.9% as of Feb 15 => much above the 15% year-end growth target. Seasonal pattern suggests further acceleration in 2Q. We think current growth pace means further RRR hikes in the upcoming MPC meetings.

 

·         TCELL > OPERATING BETTER, GUIDANCE CAUTIOUS > 4Q12 NI TL459m +38% y-y- in line; adj for TL106m one-off exp, NI @ TL565m, beating est significantly (cons: TL465m) => +29% yoy vs adj 4Q11 (TL105m one-off expense). Beat due to better than exp oper perf. 4Q12 revenues @ TL2,807m => +15% y-y. Data rev +47% y-y & Superonline rev +35% y-y & voice ARPU +9% y-y in 4Q12. Vodafone & Avea’s voice ARPU in 4Q12 @ +6% & +5% y-y, resp. TCELL’s blended ARPU @ TL21 => +10% y-y in 4Q12. Sub base -50K to 35.1m vs Vodafone & Avea +215K & +300K, resp. Continued shift from pre-paid to post-paid (37.5% of total sub base from 36.7% in 3Q & 33.8% in 4Q11) => helped ARPU. 4Q12 EBITDA @ TL848m; +22% yoy=> better. EBITDA mrg @ 30.2% vs 28.4% in 4Q11 => FY2012 @ 30.9% (FY2011’s 31.1%). EBITDA mrg expansion due to lower S&M expense/sales due to lower subs additions. GUIDANCE: Mgmt believes voice, mobile broadband & incr’d contribution of subsidiaries should continue to be growth drivers. Rev guidance: TL11.2bn-11.4bn (7-9% y-y) & consolidated EBITDA @ TL3.3bn–TL3.5bn (2-8% y-y). Capex guidance @ 15% of revenues. Mgmt guidance reflects cautious view both @ rev & costs with mid-range EBITDA mrg @ 30.1% (30.9% @ 2012). Both TCELL’s & Avea’s guidance of mobile price rationalization in the last couple of Qs has NOT become a trend yet. Teleconference @ 5.30pm local. COURT CASE > Separately, the SDIF filed a case demanding compensation for alleged TL131.9m loss due to TCELL’s termination of contracts with A-tel on Aug 1, 2012. A-tel is a 50/50 JV between TCELL and SDIF and is in charge of distribution and sales of pre-paid cards in TR. Compensation amount corresponds to 6% of 2012 NI (0.5% of MCAP) => could be provisioned for in the following periods.

 

·         ASYAB (HOLD; TP TL2.55 ) > will release 4Q12 results tdy. Impact on share price should be limited since tax numbers are already out. Developments re asset quality key. Conf call @ 16:45 Istanbul time (Dial-in => US: 1 480 629 9818; UK: 44 208 515 2313; Other countries: 39 023 0350 9038). FY12 tax purpose financials: reported TL190.4m bank-only NI => accordingly, implied 4Q12 NI is TL36.1m (-28% q-q) => below our est of TL50m and cons est of TL50.6m. Although the bank’s top-line perf (NII + NFI) is a tad better vs our est, higher than exp’d provisioning exps and poor other oper income (probably due to poor NPL recoveries) pulled bottom-line below our est.

 

·         TAVHL (BUY; TP TL14,60) > will release 4Q12 results tdy. BNPP est: €264m rev, €67m EBITDA & €14m NI. Cons est: €257m rev, €67m EBITDA & €16m NI. We exp top-line growth (+15% y-y) to come below passenger growth (+30% y-y) <= large portion of traffic growth from domestic; similar to previous quarters. Also, the y-y TL appreciation vs euro will make revenue growth appear lower in lira terms. We anticipate 1ppt EBITDA mrgn expansion => on better mrngs @ Istanbul Ataturk and @ the ground-handling subsidiary. We f/cast bottom line will contract => on higher financial exps given the q-q depr of the lira.