14 Aralık 2012 Cuma

Buy - Sell

·         EKGYO (NR) => Held the first session for its Kartal Land tender auction yesterday, where Ronesans-SZA-Salacak Group reportedly made the highest offer among 18 bidders @ TRY766m and a 40% revenue-sharing agreement with Emlak Konut (corresponds to TRY306.4m revenue). The appraisal value of Kartal Land is TRY207m which implies a 1.48 base-value to tender-value multiple. However, the tender process is not over yet. EKGYO will set the minimum revenue and will proceed with open tender auctions in the near future.
 
·         MGROS ((BUY; TP TL22.28) => Following yesterday’s reports that Walmart was in talks to acquire a stake in MGROS, MGROS said that it was natural for leading retailers to be interested in the co. MGROS added that necessary disclosures would be made if such talks reach a tangible stage. Walmart’s head of IR said that they do not comment on speculations and rumours. In our view, the fact that none of the players denied talks raises the likelihood that the Walmart is one of the likely interested parties, while we remain suspicious on the $3.2bn price tag ($4bn EV).
 

·         EREGL (HOLD, TP TL2.43) => Applied for CMB approval for plans to issue bonds up to TRY500m in the next twelve month period. Sl. good news. Bonds will have longer maturity than the existing short-term debt and will not bear significantly higher costs. EREGL had ~$1.1b short-term debt as of end 3Q12 of which c.$450m was related to financing of working capital. In other news, EREGL along with a few industrial customers who have reportedly been asked to purchase natural gas from private gas importers @ 20% above Botas’s price, have taken issue with this to the Ministry of Energy. Both the ministry and Botas have reportedly promised EREGL that it would be sold natural gas by Botas. Comment: It seems that the natural gas issue has been resolved for now. But if EREGL is forced to purchase natural gas from private importers, we estimate the cost increase could be between USD20m-USD30m vs. our c.USD750m EBITDA (14.4% margin) est for 2013.
 
·        AKENR (HOLD, TP2.18) => To start 94% rights issue today. Reference price TL1.62

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