Buy - Sell

3Q10 GDP @ 10am > TEB-BNPP 3.2% y/y, Cons 2.6% y/y

 

October IP > TEB-BNPP and Cons @ -2.5%y/y, -0.7% m/m

 

TUPRS (BUY; TP TL52.5) > The US government reissued waivers exempting 9-countries incl’g Turkey (mostly Asian countries) => for the next 6-m from fully complying with U.S. sanctions against Iran’s oil exports. The exemptions were granted as these countries reduced their Iranian oil purchases over the past 6-m. Turkey’s oil imports from Iran had come down by about 40% y-y in tonnes in 2Q12 and 3Q12 combined. Comment: This is good news for Turkey and Tupras but the reissuing of another 6-m waiver was widely expected recently.

 

DOHOL (NR) > Dogan Holding suspended its acquisition of a 60% stake in Full (fuel retailer) for $109m, announced on Oct 15, 2012. Note that the transaction was not complete i.e. no shares/cash transfer had taken place => Full’s major shareholder Arbel Holding is being investigated for tobacco & alcoholic liquor smuggling. According to press reports, European Tobacco is held responsible for smuggling => assets/shares of its shareholders are seized by financial crimes investigation police. However, Arbel Holding stated that it already sold its shares in European Tobacco & has no ties with the Company. Full currently runs 54 fuel stations => 21 are owned by the company itself. In our view, the news flow would have an adverse impact on the stock in the s/t => Note that the stock u/p ISE-100 by 10% in last 2 wks.

 

ENKAI (BUY; TP TL5.60) > According to Hurriyet newspaper, Enka Insaat Chairman Sinan Tara stated that the company was improving its engineering capabilities further (especially in power plant and petrochemicals projects). In our last note, we have highlighted that Enka has achieved  important progress in improving its standalone EPC (Engineering Procurement, and Construction) capability, a development that might have been unnoticed in our view.  Comment: We believe development of engineering capabilities further (especially in petrochemicals area) would be a critical step to achieve sustainable growth in contracting. Mid-term positive.

 

THYAO ( BUY, TP: TL 6.14) > THY chairman reportedly said over the w/e that Lufthansa had been bearing the burden of some of its partners but it wanted others to bear some of this burden from now on. He said that THY would negotiate with Lufthansa only @ equal conditions given the advantages of its hub & incr’g regional clout in addition to well developed human resources & infrastructure. THY management will not enter into any agreement that would weaken THY’s position => indicating that they will drive a hard bargain. Comment: These statements support our exp re the outcome of the soon-to-start discussions b/w THY & Lufthansa => may not yield to any major outcome such as a significant consolidation of the networks bcs two companies’ main hubs are too close to each other & their networks overlap significantly while neither airline desperately needs to take drastic measures in order to address major present weaknesses or threats.