Strong growth y-y continues on traffic growth
TAV Airports posted earnings of EUR54m (up 36% y-y, BNPPe: EUR52, TAV consensus: EUR47m) in 3Q12 on EBITDA of EUR124m (up 24% y-y, BNPPe: EUR123m, consensus: EUR118m) and revenue of EUR335m (up 28% y-y, BNPPe: EUR321m, consensus: EUR318m). Growth was mostly driven by 33% y-y increase in the number of terminal passengers.
Operating performance slightly better than expected
While top line and EBITDA growth was impressive in 1H12, it was below the number of passengers with 12ppt of the passenger growth in 3Q12 coming from Izmir domestic terminal (acquired early 2012). We estimate margins were slightly pressured by strong TRY (13% y-y in real terms), which accounted for about 50% of costs but 35% of revenues in 9M12.
Reiterate BUY on valuation and likely LT upside from third airport
We reiterate our BUY rating for TAV Airports as it offers more than 35% upside potential to our 12-month target price of TRY12.50, based on SoTP. We especially recommend the stock for investors keen for exposure to the fast-growing Turkish aviation industry but wanting to avoid the volatility and lack of visibility for margins at Turkish Airlines. We think the government’s plan for a third airport in Istanbul is likely to create more upside risk for TAV Airports than downside in the long term.
TAV Airports posted earnings of EUR54m (up 36% y-y, BNPPe: EUR52, TAV consensus: EUR47m) in 3Q12 on EBITDA of EUR124m (up 24% y-y, BNPPe: EUR123m, consensus: EUR118m) and revenue of EUR335m (up 28% y-y, BNPPe: EUR321m, consensus: EUR318m). Growth was mostly driven by 33% y-y increase in the number of terminal passengers.
Operating performance slightly better than expected
While top line and EBITDA growth was impressive in 1H12, it was below the number of passengers with 12ppt of the passenger growth in 3Q12 coming from Izmir domestic terminal (acquired early 2012). We estimate margins were slightly pressured by strong TRY (13% y-y in real terms), which accounted for about 50% of costs but 35% of revenues in 9M12.
Reiterate BUY on valuation and likely LT upside from third airport
We reiterate our BUY rating for TAV Airports as it offers more than 35% upside potential to our 12-month target price of TRY12.50, based on SoTP. We especially recommend the stock for investors keen for exposure to the fast-growing Turkish aviation industry but wanting to avoid the volatility and lack of visibility for margins at Turkish Airlines. We think the government’s plan for a third airport in Istanbul is likely to create more upside risk for TAV Airports than downside in the long term.
Hiç yorum yok:
Yorum Gönder