Buy - Sell

 

·    IMPLICATIONS OF INVESTMENT GRADE - BANKS TO BE TOP BENEFICIARIES – Note sent out earlier. In summary, IG from a single rating agency is sufficient for banks to halve their risk-weightings on Eurobonds and FX bank receivables to 50%. We expect this to contribute c.60bp to CARs.

 

·         OCTOBER FOREIGN TRANSACTIONS => Total inflows $5bn, Outflows $4.5bn, Net $481m, YTD Net @ $2.5bn. Major Inflows: GARAN, AKBNK, ISCTR, KCHOL, HALKB, THYAO Major Outflows: YKBNK, TCELL, ENKAI, TTKOM, EREGL, TKFEN

 

·         OCT AUTO SALES => Domestic LV retail sales -14% y-y, broadly in-line. Sales robust considering -ve impact of Eid holiday. Expected shift from PCs to LCVs following the recent tax hikes was not realized as manufacturers mostly absorbed tax hikes in Oct. Share of LCV sales in total sales was 27.5% (-4.0pp y-y, -1.6pp m-m). Automotive Distributors Association expects 2012  auto sales (including HCVs ) @ 815k units (-11% y-y, our estimate 812k units).  DOAS market share recovered by 2.2pp m-m to 15.7% (+3.3pp y-y), TOASO market share declined by 1.2pp m-m to 13.9% (-1.5pp y-y), FROTO mrkt share was extremely weak at 11.3%(-2.8pp m-m,-3.8pp y-y) the lowest figure in 2012. FROTO notes that the impact of new Transit/Tourneo Custom launches will reflect to mrkt share in Nov. In 10M12, Ford and Fiat registered the same market shares (13.4%) in LV market. FROTO includes HCVs in market share calculations, which would support the company in market leadership. However, the company would still need to regain market share compared to October to ensure market leadership. As such, there might be some downside risk to our recently revised EBITDA margin estimate for FROTO in 2012 (7.8%).

 

·         SNGYO (NR) => Chairman says that company will invest around TL400-500m for projects in Ankara. Pre sales ratio is around 60% in its Incek Life – the co’s first project Ankara. The co will launch 2 more projects in the Ankara’s business district in 2 years.