· Bolu plant:
The company is expected to secure US$240mn loan from GARAN and ISCTR for the
plant, which will be financed with 75/25 debt/equity ratio. The company has
already obtained a US$30mn bridge loan as a part of the financing. The plant is
expected to be operational in two phases until YE15 with a US$320mn investment
in total. We value the project at TL427mn but apply 25% discount due to lack of
financing. The completion of the financing will add 6% upside to our valuation.
· Receivables from Kazancı Holding: The parent currently has nearly TL400mn debt to
AKSEN and expects to pay a meaningful amount in one year. Note that the Holding
assured AKSEN to pay its debt fully until YE2014.
· 2012: EBITDA
is expected to reach TL420mn, upper end of the previous guidance of TL380-420mn
and higher than our estimate of TL390mn. Company guidance implies that EBITDA
margin will reach 22% vs. our estimate of 21% in 2012.
· Exports to Syria: Will be extended one more year starting from September. This is positive
news considering unrest in Syria and higher prices compared to domestic market.
· SPO: The
company is willing to do a SPO to increase its free float and liquidity as soon
as possible but also wants GS deal to be completed and share price to recover
first. AKSEN’s free float is 5.5%. As may be recalled, Kazanci Holding agreed
to sell 13.3% of AKSEN to Goldman Sachs for US$240mn (44% higher than current
mcap). Deal is subject to CMB’s approval and expected to be completed by YE12.
· Prices: The
company does not project a tariff increase either in NG or electricity tariffs
in 4Q12.
BGC Partners
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