JP Morgan'a göre ABD bankaları enerji şirketlerine kredileri azaltacaklar

JP Morgan, dün düzenlediği yatırımcı toplantısında, ABD bankalarının; nakit sıkıntısı çeken enerji şirketleri üzerinde baskılarının; artmakta olduğunu ve bankaların enerji şirketlerine kredileri; yüzde 15-20 oranında azalttıklarının görülebileceğini bildirdi.

JP Morgan'ın ticari bankacılık birimi başkanı Doug Petno,; bankaların şu ana kadar enerji sektöründen müşterilerine karşı; oldukça hoşgörülü davrandımlarını, ancak bunun değişmekte olduğunu; belirtti.; Petno ayrıca JP Morgan olarak, müşteriler ile petrol; rezervlerini değerini yeniden değerlendirmek için Nisan ayındaki; geleneksel dönemi beklemeyeceklerini vurguladı.

JP Morgan'ın yatırımcılar ile toplantısında yatırım bankacılığı; gelirlerinde yılın ilk çeyreğinde çift haneli düşüş beklediği; ifade edilirken, enerji sektörüne kredilerde beklenen zararlar için; karşılıkların 500 milyon dolar artırılacağının da sinyali verildi.

Turkey: the CBRT remains on hold, drops the reference to policy simplification

- The CBRT has kept all rates associated with its interest rate corridor unchanged - There is no reference to policy simplification, implying that the CBRT wants to maintain the status quo - Next week's inflation report will likely provide some policy guidance In line with our expectations, the CBRT kept all rates associated with its interest rate corridor unchanged. This means that the 1-week repo rate (policy rate) remains at 7.50%, the ON lending rate (ceiling) at 10.75% and the ON borrowing rate (floor) at 7.25%. Perhaps more importantly, the CBRT has dropped the reference to policy simplification in the interest rate note. This means that the CBRT has become nervous about the recent increase in global volatility and wants to keep the interest rate corridor wide as such a wide corridor gives the CBRT the discretion to adjust the policy (through fine tuning its effective funding rate) according to the trend in global risk appetite.

JP Morgan Raporu

*JPMORGAN, "SANAYİ ÜRETİM VERİSİNİN PİYASA DİNAMİKLERİ VE TCMB POLİTİKA GÖRÜNÜMÜ ÜZERİNDE ANLAMLI BİR ETKİ YAPACAĞINDAN KUŞKULUYUZ"

 

*JPMORGAN, "İÇ TALEPTE BEKLENENDEN DAHA KESKİN BİR TOPARLANMA OLMASI RİSKİNİN BÜYÜDÜĞÜ HİSSİ VAR"

 

*JPMORGAN, "TCMB'NİN İHTİYATLI OLMAYA DEVAM ETMESİNİ, EĞER BANKA KREDİLERİNDE HIZLI ARTIŞ OLUR İSE GEREKTİ TEDBİRLERİ ALMASINI BEKLİYORUZ"

 

*JPMORGAN, "TÜRKİYE İÇİN YÜZDE 2.8 OLAN 2012 BÜYÜME BEKLENTİMİZ İÇİN RİSKLER BİRAZ YUKARI YÖNLÜ"

Turkey: IP rebounds strongly in September

Industrial output expanded 6.2%oya, comparing favorably with a market consensus of 2.0% in September. Adjusted for seasonal and working day effects, IP jumped 3.9%m/m. As we have said many times in the past, the IP series is a rather volatile one and one should be very cautious in interpreting the results. Data get even more noisy during and after the Ramadan period. The 3.9% jump in September follows the 2.0% contraction in August. As some of the firms adopt flexible working hours, IP generally loses momentum during the Ramadan period and recovers afterwards. The Ramadan period shifts backward by 10 days because of the adoption of the lunar year and this makes it very difficult to forecast the IP data especially around the Ramadan period.

 

Hence, we doubt that the September IP data will have any meaningful impact on market dynamics and on the CBRT’s policy outlook. Having said that, we feel that there is a growing risk of a sharper than expected recovery in domestic demand which could have negative repercussions on the inflation and external balances fronts. We think that there is some upside risk to our 2012 GDP growth forecast of 2.8%.

 

Fitch’s rating upgrade along with the reduction in Syria-related news flow could lead to an improvement in domestic sentiment and hence stronger demand. Towards this end, one needs to monitor the developments in the loan market and the domestic demand indicators more closely in the coming months. Note that lending rates have remained relatively sticky, but as the CBRT lowers the upper band of its interest rate corridor, banks may cut their lending rates aggressively. This is not our base-case and we expect the CBRT to remain cautious and take the necessary measures if there is such a sharp increase in bank lending. However, stronger than expected activity data will likely make the market participants extra sensitive to the risk of strong domestic demand recovery in the coming weeks.

Ülker Raporu - Ulker Biscuits

Ulker Biscuits

· Old share type structure: Ülker Biscuits has five share classes: A, B,; C, D and Founders’ shares. Class A, B and Founders’ shares have; privileged dividend rights. Additionally, class A shareholders can; appoint four members of the Board while class B holders can appoint; one member. All classes of shares have voting rights except Founders’; shares.;

 · Cancellation of privileged shares: Under the approved share swap,; holders of class A, B and Founders’ shares, namely Yildiz Holding and; the Ülker family, will relinquish their privileged dividend rights in; exchange for additional class C shares. As a result, the company will; issue 73 million new shares, increasing the total number of outstanding; shares from 269 million to 342 million. Subsequently, Yildiz Holding; and Ülker family ownership will increase to 47.0% and 11.4%; respectively while Dynamic Growth Fund’s shareholdings will decrease; to 20.9%. Free float will decrease to 20.7% although absolute number of; tradable shares will remain unchanged.;

· Financials and valuation: We restate our EPS forecasts based on the; new share count while maintaining all our underlying operational; assumptions; 2012E EPS decreases from TL0.25 to TL0.20 per share.; Based on our DCF methodology and the new number of outstanding; shares we derive a new Dec-12 PT of TL7.00 per share. We remain; Neutral on the stock.

Valuation Methodology and Risks;

Ulker Biscuits (Neutral Price Target: TL7.00);

Valuation Methodolgy :

We rate Ülker Biscuits Neutral. We apply a Discounted Cash Flow valuation to; derive our price target, in order to account for the ongoing margin expansion of the; company. Applying a WACC of 12.0% and terminal growth rate of 5.0%, we derive; a price target of TL 7.00.;

Risks to Our View :

Upside risks to our view: 1) Higher than anticipated growth in the biscuits and cake; markets; 2) Strengthening of the company’s competitive position across markets; 3); Higher growth and margin outlook from the consolidation of Ülker Çikolata; 4); Increase in its free float.;

Downside risks: 1) Potential deterioration of the macroeconomic backdrop in; Turkey; 2) Intensifying competition in the biscuits, chocolate and cake markets; 3); Execution risk of company’s strategy; 4) Potential appreciation of the USD which; would negatively impact exports as well as non-cash FX losses.

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