Şirket ve Sektör Haberleri 07/09/2015

 

 

 

-         Ağustos ayında yabancı yatırımcılar hisse senedi piyasasında net 462 mln USD satış yaptılar. Yabancı yatırımcılar Ağustos ayında işlem hacminin %20,83’ünü gerçekleştirdiler (Temmuz’da %18,10 idi). Yabancı payı Ağustos sonunda %64,53 oldu. Ağustos ayında en çok yabancı girişi olan hisseler; ULKER ($14m), TAVHL ($14m), TUPRS ($13m), BIMAS ($12m), AVISA ($10m).  Ağustos ayında en çok yabancı çıkışı olan hisseler; GARAN ($118m), THYAO ($68m), ISCTR ($54m), HALKB ($43m), TCELL ($33m).

 

-          Bankacılık sektörü: Star Gazetesi haberine göre, BDDK Kredi kartı taksitlendirmesindeki sınırın gevşetilmesi konusunda çalışmalarını tamamladı. Buna göre taksit üst sınırı 9 aydan 12 aya çıkartılacak. Aynı habere göre BDDK yetkililerinin tüketici kredilerindeki taksit sınırlamasının da 36 aydan 48 aya uzatılması konusundaki çalışmaları devam ediyor. Kredi kartı taksitleri ile ilgili konu daha önce BDDK başkanı tarafından açıklanmıştı. Bunun gerçekleşmesi durumunda bankalar için olumlu.

BNP Paribas, Türk Traktör için fiyat hedefini 62.5 TL'den 64.6 TL'ye çıkardı

BNP Paribas, Türk Traktör için fiyat hedefini 62.5 TL'den 64.6 TL'ye çıkardı

TURK TRAKTOR

4Q13 results were strong, as we expected
In 4Q13, the company posted TRY75m net income, better than CBNC-e consensus (TRY65m) and absolutely in line with us, on lower-than-expected financial expenses. Operating performance was broadly in line with our and consensus expectations.

TURK TRAKTOR / Downgrading to HOLD (Prev. BUY)

·         Turk Traktor shares have gained 35% in the last three months and outperformed the ISE-100 by 26%. Since our last update on February 21, the shares have surged by 19% and exceeded our 12-mth target price of TL61.5/share.

·         Since Turk Traktor reported 4Q12 financials on February 14, the following news came out: 1) 2013E dividend proposal at TL200mn (gross) which was in line with expectations, with a net yield of 5.1%; 2) Turk Traktor starting talks with EBRD for up to EUR75mn in new financing for the EUR63mn new plant investment + R&D, engine, transmissions investments at the Ankara plant; again an expected development. The terms of the financing will be unveiled when the talks are concluded.

·         As for trade data, February numbers indicate that Turk Traktor’s domestic tractor shipments fell 28% y/y while exports were flat in Jan-Feb 2013. The decline in the domestic shipments in the first two months of the year is optical in our view, as the company’s wholesale shipments were ahead of retail demand in 1Q12, forming an unfavourable base for comparison, while wholesale shipments and retail demand converged in the annual figures. Nevertheless, 1Q13 financials may indicate some weakness, unless there is a grand recovery in March.

Türk Traktör Şirket Raporu

Değerlemeye Bağlı Olarak Tavsiyemizi TUT’a indiriyoruz

Güçlü hisse performansı getiri potansiyelini sınırladı. Yukarı yönlü kısıtlı artış potansiyelini göz önüne alarak Türk Traktör için tavsiyemizi TUT’a indiriyoruz. Hisse tavsiye güncellediğimiz 8 Ağustos 2012’den bu yana %68’lik artışı ile, endekse karşılık %39’luk daha iyi bir performans sergiledi. Ara güncelleme yaptığımız 7 Aralık 2012’den bu tarihe kadar ise bu değer artışı hisse bazında %25, endekse karşılık ise %21 olarak gerçekleşti. Bu artışlar neticesinde hissede %5.9’luk temettü verimini de göz önüne aldığımızda %1’lik bir artış potansiyeli ortaya çıkmakta. TTRAK’ın güçlü performansındaki en önemli etkenler; kapasite artışına yönelik planların açığa çıkması,  Turk Traktör’ün küçük rakibinin halka açılmasında ortaya çıkacak değerin belirginleşmesi (TTRAK’ın 2012 çarpanlarına göre primli olması) ve %6.2’lik bono getirisiyle karşılaştırıldığında ortaya çıkan yüksek temettü verimi gibi konular oluşturmakta. Bu pozitif etkenlerin birçoğunun hisseye olumlu şekilde yansıdığını düşünüyoruz; hisse şu anda sırasıyla 9.5x 2013E FD/FAVÖK ve 11.5x 2013E F/K çarpanlarıyla işlem görmekte olup uluslararası benzerlerine göre sırasıyla %6’lık prim ve %7’lik iskontoyu işaret etmekte ve şirketin tarihsel ortalamalarında göre iskonto oranı %20 ila %30 oranında değişmektedir.

TTRAK - NÖTR TEMETTÜ VERİMİ HALA CAZİP...

TTRAK için NÖTR olan önerimizi devam ettirirken daha önce hisse başına 42.50 TL olan 12 aylık hedef değerimizi 50.40 TL’ye çıkardık. Yeni hedef değerimizi sadece %6 yukarı potansiyele işaret etmektedir ve bu nedenle de önerimiz NÖTR olarak kalmıştır.

Ø  2012’de talep beklentimizinin bir miktar üzerinde seyrediyor.

Ø  2013’te düşen faizler ve ekonomide beklenen toparlanma nedeniyle için daha az daralma öngördük (önceki beklentimiz %6 daralma şeklindeydi).

Ø  Hisse uluslararası benzerlerine göre sınırlı bir iskonto ile işlem görüyor.

Ø  Yüksek temettü ödeme oranına sahip (2012 tahmini verim %7.6) ve bu da hisse de en cazip nokta.

Ø  Yönetim planlanan 63mn Euro’luk yatırıma rağmen temettü politikasında değişiklik yapmayacak.

Ø  Pazarda olası bir hurda teşviği yurtiçi talepte önemli bir artışa ve bunun sonucunda da değerlemelerde yükselişe sebep olacaktır.

TURK TRAKTOR / BUY (Maintained)

·         Turk Traktor beat our expectations in 3Q12 with a strong gross margin despite weak volumes and better financial income. We have upped our 2012E net profit forecast by 15% to TL259mn (-7% y/y).

·         We have made a 4% downward revision to 2013E tractor demand forecasts to 51k units. We still expect 4% demand growth in 2013E and are more optimistic than the company on outlook. We expect 5.5% GDP growth in 2013E (vs. 2.8% in 2012E). Also, the 19% increase in resources allocated to agriculture in the government’s 2013E draft budget bodes well for farmers’ sentiment, although it may not necessarily imply direct subsidies for tractor purchases. Our 2013E net profit forecast is 4% higher than before and now implies a 2% contraction y/y. 

·         Turk Traktor announced that the company obtained a TL90mn investment incentive for the new plant it intends to build in Adapazari. No further details such as the exact investment cost or capacity are known yet but an announcement is likely to come soon. We pencil in an investment budget of TL279mn between 2012-14E in our model.

·         We do not expect the much anticipated scrap incentive to be introduced before 2014E. If introduced sooner, it would have a positive impact on Turk Traktor.

·         Due to the decline in 10-year Turkish bond yield, we lower the risk-free rate to 8.5% from 9% in our DCF. Our new 12-mth share price target for Turk Traktor is TL54.8, 11% higher than before. With 25% total return potential including a 6% projected dividend yield, we maintain BUY rating. We assume a 70% dividend payout ratio on 2012 net earnings in 2013E.

·         Key risks to our recommendation include lower GDP growth, weaker TL, higher interest rates, lower credit availability, disruption in government subsidies for agriculture and poor crop lowering farmers’ income. A higher than predicted investment budget for the new plant would also lower cash flow and valuation. Weaker demand outside Turkey would hurt Turk Traktor’s exports.

TTRAK TRAKTÖR Repory

Operating performance was below our expectations
In 3Q12, Turk Traktor posted TRY50.9m net income, below our estimate of TRY58.6m, due to weaker than expected operating performance. Posted EBITDA of TRY61.0m was below our estimate (TRY69.6m) on lower than expected imported tractor sales. Consensus EBITDA (TRY61.4m) and net income (TRY48.8m) were almost in line with the posted figures.

EBITDA margin contracted slightly by 0.5ppt q-q
Despite a sharp decline in local unit sales by 45% q-q, the Company was able to sustain its profitability margins as the company increased unit prices again by 3-4% from July. Gross margin of local unit prices increased by 3pp q-q to 32% in 3Q12. However, low imported unit sales somewhat reduced the positive impact of the price hike.

Buy - Sell

·         FOREIGN TRADE: Consensus looking for a $6.2bn deficit in Sep. vs -$10.5bn a year ago. If in line with our forecast ($5bn), the 12-mth cum deficit will decline to $85.3bn in Sep from $90.7 bn in Aug.

·         GARAN (BUY, TP TL8.72) announced TL733m net income in 3Q12, above TRY600m TEB-BNPP and TRY653m consensus estimates. Main source of deviation comes from trading where the bank booked TRY452m vs. our TRY150m forecast, mainly via sale of Eurobonds, as the FX securities book came down by TRY1.8b q-q. There were further TRY468m of MTM gains on top of this which caused the bank’s equity to grow by 7% q-q. Other than a 10bp miss in NIM vs. our est (down 82bp q-q on CPI-linkers, up 29bp adj. for linkers) and a 20bp higher cost of risk vs. our est (when taking into acct TRY82m discretionary provisions set aside for a shipping industry loan), operational performance was largely in line with our expectations, as fees grew 2% y-y while opex rose 16% y-y. Both loan and deposit growth were closer to sector averages, +1.7% and +2.7% q-q, respectively. NPL ratio rose 19bp to 2%, as expected, while coverage ratio remained @ 81%. Quarterly ROE @ 15.1%. CAR p by 121bp q-q to 17.8% after Basel-II.

·         TAVHL (BUY, TP TL12.5): Istanbul’s mayor reportedly says 3rd airport would be built close to the Terkos lake (Istanbul). Says because of rough terrain, the tender for construction could be made this or next yr. Comment: Site being mentioned is new & 50-60 km away from the city center. While still north of Istanbul & close to Black Sea coast, it is c.15km to the west of the previously speculated location (Agacli). We assume potential delay for tender is sl. +VE news for TAVHL, as it implies significant construction challenges & delays to its opening beyond speculated 2016 & less uncertainty re its ops at Istanbul Ataturk.

Buy - Sell

·    FROTO (HOLD, TP: TL 17.4): Ford Motor Company (FMC) announced on Oct 25 it expects a $1.5b+ loss from European ops in 2012 & therefore announced a restructuring program (prev: $1b+ loss=> Will close 3 European facilities (Southampton, Genk, Tooling & stamping operations in Dagenham), decreasing European capacity by 18% (gross annual savings of $450m -500m)=> Transit assembly plant in Southampton (c.28k Transit production in 2011) to be closed & Transit production to be consolidated in Kocaeli/Turkey (est. 2H13) => Transit has highest rev/vehicle & highest mrg w/i FROTO’s portfolio => assuming incremental 25k units (9% of 2012E production) & no incremental Capex need => c.+10% on our DCF val for FROTO (to be partially negated by worsening outlook on mrg for 2013 than our current est indicate). Following relocation decision, FROTO might need to adjust capacity allocation b/w basic Transit models (160k units as of 2014) & Transit/ Tourneo Custom (130k units) => to have a balanced CUR b/w 2 lines in l/t => will recheck production numbers & Capex requirement if any. Restructuring plan of FMC can also facilitate more competitive pricing for PC ops of FROTO in mid-term => -VE trend in mrg of FROTO is not only driven by its ageing LCV product portfolio, but also uncompetitive pricing against VW brands in PC. NET/NET: +VE for FROTO given weakening outlook for 2013 => however we believe market was already partially pricing some positive developments on new sourcing arrangements. DIVIDEND: FROTO TRY0.65/share divi on Oct 31.

 

    Opel - PSA announcement & TOASO (BUY; TL9.25) > On Oct 24, Opel and PSA announced key steps in their global strategic alliance which includes next steps in joint purchasing organization, and four common vehicle platform development projects. The Alliance aims to launch the first vehicles on these common programs by end-2016. Impact on Tofas => possibly limited, but unconfirmed for now: we believe the most critical item that could impact Tofas could be the joint program for a compact-class Multi-Purpose Van

TTRAK Unit Sales in September 2012

In the local market, Turk Traktor sold 1,462 tractors in September 2012, down 41.9% y/y from 2,519 tractors in September 2011- Implication on Stock: Negative. September sales figures was almost 20% below our estimate. In our view, September unit sales reading was important in figuring out whether the decline in demand will turn into a major downward trend. Although it is early to claim that a major downward has started, we are planning to revisit our unit sales estimates for 2012 and for 2013, after October sales announcement. Tractor demand has slowed down in last four months, and Turk Traktor’s sales to dealers has declined as well. We expect the y/y decline in unit sales to continue for the remainder of the year. We expect Turk Traktor to sell 27,500 units in 2012, yet the chance of reaching that number gets slim. We expect local demand to moderate further in 2013, resulting in a negative growth momentum in earnings in 2H12 and 2013. Despite relatively undemanding P/E multiples of 8.6x on our 2012 estimates and 10.1x on our 2013 estimates, unfavorable earnings growth momentum will hurt the sentiment on the stock. 

 

TTRAK (HOLD, TP TL37.8)