· GARAN (BUY, TP TL8.72) announced TL733m net income in 3Q12, above TRY600m TEB-BNPP and TRY653m consensus estimates. Main source of deviation comes from trading where the bank booked TRY452m vs. our TRY150m forecast, mainly via sale of Eurobonds, as the FX securities book came down by TRY1.8b q-q. There were further TRY468m of MTM gains on top of this which caused the bank’s equity to grow by 7% q-q. Other than a 10bp miss in NIM vs. our est (down 82bp q-q on CPI-linkers, up 29bp adj. for linkers) and a 20bp higher cost of risk vs. our est (when taking into acct TRY82m discretionary provisions set aside for a shipping industry loan), operational performance was largely in line with our expectations, as fees grew 2% y-y while opex rose 16% y-y. Both loan and deposit growth were closer to sector averages, +1.7% and +2.7% q-q, respectively. NPL ratio rose 19bp to 2%, as expected, while coverage ratio remained @ 81%. Quarterly ROE @ 15.1%. CAR p by 121bp q-q to 17.8% after Basel-II.
· TAVHL (BUY, TP TL12.5): Istanbul’s mayor reportedly says 3rd airport would be built close to the Terkos lake (Istanbul). Says because of rough terrain, the tender for construction could be made this or next yr. Comment: Site being mentioned is new & 50-60 km away from the city center. While still north of Istanbul & close to Black Sea coast, it is c.15km to the west of the previously speculated location (Agacli). We assume potential delay for tender is sl. +VE news for TAVHL, as it implies significant construction challenges & delays to its opening beyond speculated 2016 & less uncertainty re its ops at Istanbul Ataturk.
· VAKBN (HOLD; TP TL4.42) => Obtained $500m subordinated debt with a 10-year maturity @ 6%. The issue adds 0.9% to the balance sheet and contributes c.115bp to the CAR, which stood at 13.4% in 2Q12, more than offsetting the c.50bp negative impact expected from Basel-II. The cost is in line with Isbank’s recent issue. YKB is next in line for a sub deal. Make hay while the sun shines.
· EARNINGS TODAY:
o BIZIM (HOLD; TP TL26.11) > TEB-BNPP NI @ TL8.5m, cons TL8.1m. We exp Bizim to announce encouraging results in 3Q12 with better revenue perf than 1H => +17% y-y rev growth. We exp flat q-q EBITDA mrgn @ 3.4% despite the +VE impact from operating leverage => we foresee 70bp contraction in gross mrgn q-q stemming from special Ramadan bundle sales diluting margins. On y-y terms, we est 23% growth in EBITDA with 20bp margin expansion and 27% growth in NI. That said, addi fin’l expenses stemming from NWC requirement constitute some uncertainty for earnings.
o TTRAK (HOLD; TP TL37.79) 3Q12 DUE TODAY: We exp NI @ TL59m vs cons @ TL48m. In 3Q12 it sold 4,595 tractors in the local market (-30.3% y-y) & exported 3,087 tractors (+22% y-y). Despite a sharp decline in local unit sales, TTRAK incr’d unit prices by 10-11% y-y & should see ebitda margin to rise => we exp rev (we exp TL400m vs cons TL 388m) -5% y-y & EBITDA (we exp TL70m vs cons TL61m) -3% y-y despite an incr in share of low-mrg export sales in total rev. We exp EBITDA mrg +0.5pp y-y to 17.5%.
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