4 Eylül 2015 Cuma

Daily Bulletin - Fri, Sep 4, 2015‏

STRATEGY
 
·    Global equities are being sold pre-U.S Aug NFP release. Nikkei (-2.2%), Hang Seng (-2.1%), India Sensex (-1.7%) and Korea Kospi (-1.5%) lead the sell-off.  MSCI Asia Pacific index is trading down 1.2%. S&P futures are pointing to 0.8% down opening.
 
·    EM FX sell-off is intensifying with stories in the Brazilian press about the make-up of the government (BRL -4.3% vs USD this week) – CEEMEA currencies also under pressure this week with RUB (-2.8%) , ZAR (-2.8) and TRY (-2.3%)
 
·    In light of these global developments, we expect 1.0% negative opening for BIST equities this morning based on a 1.1% upmove in TRY basket since BIST close (last trade at 3.1560; last night’s BIST close at 3.1232.)  U.S August NFP release and employment data this afternoon will be the main determinant of action.
 
·     BIST100 short-term technicals:
    • TRY : Support = 72.8k / 72.0k ; Resistance : 74.5k / 75.3k ; Last night close : 74.0k
o   USD : Support = $24.8k / $24.5k ; Resistance : $25.1k (10-dma) / $25.9k ; Last night close : $25.0k
 
AUTO SECTOR
 
·     DOAS (HOLD, TP:TRY15.3); FROTO (HOLD, TP:TRY36.5) & TOASO (BUY, TP:TRY19.3) > Tot light vehicle (LV) sales @ 82.6k units in Aug’15 (+37% y/y). Despite ongoing political uncertainty since  Jun’15 general elections & deteriorating consumer confidence on weaker TRY, LV sales remained strong in 3Q, partially still benefiting from weak base. Cumulative sales in 8M15 @ 599k units (+47% y/y). ADA maintained its 900-950k units forecast for total LV sales in 2015 => +17% - 24%y/y . Both PC & LCV sales were strong during the month => +37% & +38% y/y. Among listed auto co’s FROTO posted highest y/y sales growth @ 49%, followed by DOAS (38%) &  TOASO (11%).  FROTO & DOAS incr’d their market shares in Aug to 12.6% (+1pp y/y) & 22.4% (+0.1pp y/y), while TOASO’s ms declined to 9.5% (-2.3pp y/y). Comment: Low base impact, continuation of affordable pricing and funding environment supported LV sales.  Recall that LV sales contracted in first 9m of 2014 & posted +VE growth only in 4Q14 => no low base impact in 4Q15. Please see attachment for
 
COMPANY NEWS
 
·    BIMAS (HOLD, TP:TRY50.8) > The co. sold 446,115 shares (0.15% of issued capital, 0.23% of free float, 83% of avg daily trading vol) at a price range of TL52.65-53.40. The company purchased those shares (avg price TL43.94) during the buyback program dated Mar 5-Apr 15.
 
·     PGSUS (HOLD, TP:TRY22.20) > PGSUS’s on-time performance -3% y-y in Aug’15 registering an all-time low of 59%. This follows a 71% on-time performance in Jul’15 which was 16 ppt lower y-y. Pegasus’s on-time performance – 5% y-y to 79% in the 1st 8 mos of ‘15. Mgmt had said before that that its on-time performance would improve should the State Airports Authority relax its too strict limits on aircraft landing at Istanbul Sabiha Gokcen airport (SAW), especially when compared to Istanbul Ataturk Airport. Mgmt also cited maintenance work on SAW’s single runway taking place from 1 am to 5 am during weekdays since 4 May’15; the maintenance work is planned to be completed by 1st of Oct’15. Comment: -VE for PGSUS’s 3Q15 performance but capacity issues at Sabiha Gokcen have been well publicized. Unless DHMI takes measures, however, PGSUS’s on-time performance may suffer further in ‘16 & cause downside risk to our forecasts. DHMI launched a tender for addition of a runway at SAW but even the 1st stage has not been awarded yet & the completion date is therefore still uncertain.
 
·     MGROS (HOLD, TP:TRY23.20) opened 18 new stores in Aug ( 147 stores ytd)  and reached 1,337 end-Aug 2015 from 1,190 stores as of YE14. Comment: We expect Migros to increase the total store number to 1,400 and selling space by 55K sqm (5.6%) to 1,020Ksqm by end-2015. New openings are in line with our estimates.

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