Buy - Sell

TTKOM (BUY; TP: TL  7.46): Acc. to daily Milliyet, the Competition Authority started an investigation against TTKOM re company's pricing in fxd-line business => whether it violated competition law which bans abuse of dominant position in the market. We don't expect this to turn into anything major.

 

FROTO (HOLD, TP TL18.80) > On Friday, Ford Otosan revealed its first 2013 guidance => f/casts 2013 TR industry vol (incl’g HCVs) @ 780k-820k units => lower than our 844k units f/cast. Co’s own domestic retail sales (incl’g HCVs) f/cast of 112k units => lower than our est of 120k units. Note according to new rules, a vehicle needs to be produced in 2013 to be registered as a 2013 model. Considering the inventory in the system and the lead time for imports, we exp a relatively weak start to 2013. Therefore, the outlook for 2013 vols should be more visible after Feb. Export guidance was 212k units => higher than our 197k units f/cast. We est deviation is related to phase-out schedule of Transit Connect, and its prod’n vol before it is relocated to Spain. Overall, slightly +VE.

 

THYAO (BUY, TP TL7.30) > In discussion to place an order for as many as 150 aircraft from Airbus including a few A380s, according to the French trade min's emailed statement re her planned visit to Istanbul on Jan 15-16. Comment > THYAO needs to expand capacity after 2015 @ competitive prices and maintain a young fleet. But unless the order is spread over 15-20 years, the number looks too high given THYAO's existing fleet size (c.200) and the fact that it would probably have to order as many aircraft from Boeing for political reasons.

 

GARAN (BUY, TP TL10.01) > Announced that authorities may fine the bank up to TL36m for insufficient banking and insurance transaction tax calculations between 2007 and 2010. The bank will appeal the decision. Potential fine amount is 1% of 13E net income and 0.2% of equity as at 3Q12.

 

AEFES (HOLD, TP TL26.50) > AEFES and Heineken terminated their partnership in Kazakhstan and Serbia, first announced in Dec’12, by transferring their minority cross-holdings to each other. EBI (AEFES’s international operation) transferred its 28% stake in its Central Europe Operations (Serbian op’s holding co) and paid an extra $161m to Heineken to acquire Heineken’s 28% stake in Efes Kazakhstan. Efes Kazakhstan currently has a 54.3% mrkt share in Kazakhstan and accounts for 9% of EBI’s total unit vols. The amount paid was above our expectation ($100-120m) but impact on AEFES valuation is marginal.