Broadly
in line given the lack of visibility for 2Q12
Tupras posted a bottom line of TRL136m in 2Q12 (down 47%
y-y, BNPP: TRY112m, CBNCE Cons: TRY146m) on EBITDA of TRY277m (down 44% y-y,
BNPP: TRY223m, Cons: TRY312m) and revenues of TRY11.9b (up 13% y-y, BNPP:
TRY10.7b, Cons: TRY11.7b). Given the lack of margin visibility for 2Q on
inventory losses, we consider the results as broadly in line.
Results
confirm earnings remain less sensitive to oil prices
The company being able to post a profit above TRY100m is a
positive sign that earnings are likely to be less sensitive to volatility in
oil prices anymore as in 1Q12. The company management had indicated after 1Q12
results that the company had been increasing the share of oil purchases with
average/forward pricing starting at the beginning of 2012.
BUY
rating maintained on nearly 20% target upside
Tupras trades at par on a P/E basis on the average for 2012E
and 2013E. Yet given the long-term added value coming from its USD2.4b residuum
cracker investment to be completed in 2H14, we think it deserves somewhat
better multiples. In addition, strong recovery in indicative oil refining
margins in the Mediterranean region that started in 2012 is likely to continue
in the rest of the year. The management indicated in the earnings
teleconference that i) Tupras was expected to benefit more from the improvement
in margins overall in the industry and ii) earnings were likely to remain less
sensitive to changes to oil prices.
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