Tüpraş Bilanço Analizi

Broadly in line given the lack of visibility for 2Q12

Tupras posted a bottom line of TRL136m in 2Q12 (down 47% y-y, BNPP: TRY112m, CBNCE Cons: TRY146m) on EBITDA of TRY277m (down 44% y-y, BNPP: TRY223m, Cons: TRY312m) and revenues of TRY11.9b (up 13% y-y, BNPP: TRY10.7b, Cons: TRY11.7b). Given the lack of margin visibility for 2Q on inventory losses, we consider the results as broadly in line.

 

Results confirm earnings remain less sensitive to oil prices

The company being able to post a profit above TRY100m is a positive sign that earnings are likely to be less sensitive to volatility in oil prices anymore as in 1Q12. The company management had indicated after 1Q12 results that the company had been increasing the share of oil purchases with average/forward pricing starting at the beginning of 2012.

 

BUY rating maintained on nearly 20% target upside

Tupras trades at par on a P/E basis on the average for 2012E and 2013E. Yet given the long-term added value coming from its USD2.4b residuum cracker investment to be completed in 2H14, we think it deserves somewhat better multiples. In addition, strong recovery in indicative oil refining margins in the Mediterranean region that started in 2012 is likely to continue in the rest of the year. The management indicated in the earnings teleconference that i) Tupras was expected to benefit more from the improvement in margins overall in the industry and ii) earnings were likely to remain less sensitive to changes to oil prices.