Provisions shadow the better top-line performance in June...
Deposit
banks booked TL1.7bn net profit in Jun’12, down 5% y/y and 3% m/m. On
a m/m basis, higher revenues and dividend income fell short of covering
for the soaring provisions. Meanwhile, the sector’s net income for 2q12 reached
TL5bn, 8% below the 1q12 figure due mainly to the provisions and opex upping
18% and 10% respectively q/q even though the sum of NII and NFCI beat the 1q12
by 8%.
In terms of
segmental breakdown, public banks and the local private banks saw 23% and 2%
y/y drop in their net income respectively while the Islamic banks realized 3%
increase in net earnings respectively in Jun’12. For 2q12, the local
private banks had 4% y/y drop in their net income while public deposit banks
and Islamic banks realized 35% and 22% jump in net profits respectively y/y.
Margins are up 20bps q/q …
Yield of
securities rose 108bps m/m and compensated for the 44bps drop in monthly
loan-deposit spreads. Thus, the 2q12 NIM is realized at 20bps above 1q12 level.
On a quarterly basis, we have observed 30bps expansion in loan yields and 19bps
contraction in deposit costs whereas the yields securities eased 70bps. Going
forward, the loan-deposit spread is to further improve as the deposits will
re-price downwards faster vs. the loan book.
Yearly opex growth in 2q12 is well above the fee income growth …
Net fee
income increased 7% y/y and jumped 14% m/m whereas the 2q12 figure is 7% higher
on both y/y and q/q bases. Regulatory changes pressured the fee income line.
Opex soared 25% y/y and 1% m/m and the yearly opex growth of 17% in 2q12 is
well above the fee income growth.
Loan growth slows down; NPL ratio down 4bps …
Loans grew by
0.9% with a 2.1% increase in TL loans. Meanwhile, the growth of the interest
earning assets was only 0.2% as the securities book shrank 0.6% m/m. On the
other hand, deposit base grew by 1%. Non-performing loans declined 0.5% and the
NPL ratio declined by 4bps m/m to 2.71%. Provision expenses surged 118% m/m
(due partly to a very low base in May’12) and the quarterly provisions were up
18% vs. 1q12. The monthly cost of risk (sum of specific provisions and general
provisions divided by average loans) edged up to 146bps from 89bps in May’12
whereas the 2q12 figure is realized at 20bps above the 1q12.
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