26 Ocak 2012 Perşembe

Teknik Analiz - Arçelik


Buy 1
Price (24 Jan 12) TL7.04
Target price TL8.30 from TL8.70
Expected share price return 17.9%
Expected dividend yield 5.3%

A record year behind – We expect growth in domestic white goods sales to slown; sharply but not collapse in 2012 thanks to the continuation of replacement demand; stemming from record high sales in 2004-05.; Energy efficient white good products the next big thing? The government andn; white goods producers are working on incentives to replace part of the low energy; efficient white goods (15mn of the 24mn of total white goods in Turkey) which could; support sector sales in 2012.; More Defensive than Generally Thought - We believe Arcelik stands to benefit fromn; a slow global economic growth through: 1) lower commodity prices, i.e. steel, plastic; and 2) increasing market share in Europe as price-sensitive consumers trade down to; Arcelik brands.; Defy to grow bottom line – We find the Defy transaction sound given: 1) reasonablen; 2010A 6.3x EV/EBITDA acquisition multiple, 2) superior margins compared to Arcelik; and immediate positive impact to Arcelik’s bottom line, and 3) its strong positioning in; S. Africa and growth prospects in the Sub-Saharan Region.; Limited Impact from UK Recalls – Despite the negative publicity on recalls of Arcelikn; freezers in UK, Arcelik management have stated that it did not lose market share in UK; and that sales, after staying low for a while, quickly recovered as the company has; taken proactive measures to fix the problem. Arcelik’s market share in UK has; continued to rise, standing at between 17.0-17.5% at 2011YE up from 16.5% in 2010.; Buy Maintained – We lower our 2012-13 EPS estimates by 6% and 7% and alson; reduce the TP to TRY8.30/share on higher than expected working capital needs, net; debt and financial expenses. With these estimates, shares trade at adj. 2012E 7.7x P/E; and 4.9x EV/EBITDA vs. Electrolux’ 2012E 10.4x P/E and 6.0x EV/EBITDA. Strong; 4Q11 results driven by strong volume growth, dividend payment in March/April are; likely to be supportive for the share price and offset some negative sector data in 1H12.

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