Isbank reported TL877mn unconsolidated net income in 2Q13 for an ROAE of 15%
(Consensus: TL907mn, BGC: TL940mn). Note that the sector data released earlier
yesterday indicated to c.TL880mn net income for Isbank, so the slight 3% miss
vs. the consensus was not a surprise. While the top line was slightly better
than expected due to the FX & trading line, bottom-line came in slightly
weaker, mainly due to higher-than-estimated operating expenses and general
provisions. Recall that the bank is restating its previous year opex and
provision lines to properly represent the employee benefits and wage increases
done since the beginning of 2012, which complicates the cost analysis. On
reported figures, opex growth was 19% y/y in 2Q13 vs. the adjusted 21% in 1Q13.
Nevertheless, opex pressure was clearly higher-than-expected, also leading
to an upward revision in management guidance for 2013 for the one-off adjusted
y/y cost growth to 14-15% levels from the previous 10-12% range.
Other than for the opex guidance, the management has not made any changes to
2013 budget guidance as of yet, but indicated to clear upside risks in
particularly loan growth and fee growth targets. We see the same upside risks,
considering y-t-d loan growth has already reached 14% in FX-adjusted terms (17%
reported) vs. the 16-18% target, while fees have grown 22% y/y as of 1H13 vs.
the 15%+ target. NIM guidance is maintained at 4.2% and CoR is expected to
remain flat in 2H13 vs. 1H13, both of which we find realistic. Following the
higher-than-expected opex, we see the need for some slight downward earnings
revision in our estimates, when we will go over our forecasts and
valuations for all the banks following the end of the earnings season.
Nevertheless, we continue to find the 0.9x 2013E P/B the bank currently trades
at relatively favorable vs. peers.
The bank grew aggressively in all loan segments but autos as TL and FX
volumes rose by 12% and 9% q/q (in USD terms), respectively, while deposit
growth at 8% similarly exceeded our forecast. LDR rose by 5ppt to 110% as
the bank continued to shrink its securities book, with no major changes in the
funding structure. NIM came down by 26bps q/q, led by c.20bps drops in each of
TL and FX L-D spreads. CoR remained flat q/q, on a slight 7bps rise in the NPL
ratio adjusted for write-offs, while general provisioned more than doubled q/q
on strong loan growth. CAR came down by 143bps q/q to 14.8%, as equity dropped
by 4% due to c.TL900mn declines in each of AFS security and participation
revaluation reserves. Finally, note that the bank has not yet set aside the
TL110mn provisions necessary for the competition board fine during 1H13, which
it should do in 3Q13.
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