15 Mart 2013 Cuma

Buy - Sell

·         CONSUMER LOANS ACCELERATE > We calculate the 13-week trend growth rate of consumer loans @ 27.4% (March 8 week), up 1.8pp from the previous week. Increases the chances of a RR hike in the MPC meeting on 26 March.
 
·         THYAO (BUY, TP TLY8.46) MISSES ON POOR PRICING POWER > Adjusted NI TL15m (-94% y-y from adj. NI TL232m 4Q11, BNPP: TL217m, Cons: TL222m); EBITDAR TL413m (-39% y-y, BNPP: TL726m, Cons: TL723m) and Revs TL3.74b (+17% y-y, BNPP: TL4.06b, Cons: TL3.92b). 4Q12 headline NI TL265m vs. TL97m net loss in 4Q11. Announced cash divi TL0.1444/share (TL173m, 2.0% yield) payable on May 31 and bonus divi of 15% (TL180m). Comment > Results weaker than our est on weaker revs. Our first impression is that this is due to seasonality (i.e. trouble selling significantly increased capacities in low season), not beginning of a new downward trend on yields/margins. We will reassess our ests but note that traffic growth is faster than expected so far in 2013. Other news > Lufthansa’s CFO reportedly said there were no concrete projects on the table in discussions with THYAO. We are not surprised and think THYAO might be better off without deeper cooperation with Lufthansa. But mkt expectations were that something concrete might come out of discussions, significantly improving THYAO’s prospects.
 

·         KOZAL (BUY; TP TL) 4Q12 WEAKER OPERATING ON HIGHER CASH COSTS > NI @ TL155.6m, higher than our TL144m and cons TL149.3m estimates <= lower than exp’d tax exps. Despite higher than exp’d revenue, EBITDA @ TL186.3m was below our TL190.6m and cons TL192.6m est <= rising cash costs: ore grades declined remarkably at Mastra and Cukuralan mines while the share of underground mining incr’d. Admin exp incr’d by 40% on new mining projects (Himmetdede and Sogut) => resulting in EBITDA margin decline of 3.5% y-y and 8.2% q-q to 71.0%. We cut TP by 2% and maintain BUY rating <= We raise cash cost est by 7% for 2013-14E. Maintain our prod’n and rev est for 2013-14E but cut our EBITDA and NI est by 3%. We remain +VE on KOZAL => project CAGR of 11% in gold prod’n to 511k oz. by 2016 thanks to three new mine projects (Himmetdede, Sogut and Diyadin), which will become fully operational btw 2014 - 2016. We exp relief in cash costs when Sogut mine replaces the Mastra mine in 2014 <= the grade levels at Sogut are significantly high and should make up for a potential increase in cash costs in from Himmetdede and Diyadin.
 
·         EKGYO (NR) BETTER THAN EXPECTED > Announced 4Q12 results => Sales TL318m (cons. TL352m), EBITDA @ TL250m (cons. TL165m) , NI @ TL261m (cons. TL165m). 2012 year-end NAV @ TL3.16/share => 8.5% discount to NAV. Implied SPO price at least TL2.81/share, assuming the same IPO NAV discount of 11.8% is used. Also note that the SPO price is likely to be based on 1Q NAV, which should be higher than the year-end number.
 
·         PNSUT (NR) 4Q12 review > NI @ TL15m (-18% y-y) => abv the figure implied by the tax financials. Improvement in gross margin was striking (3.5ppt y-y and 7.9ppt q-q). However, surging opex (+54% y-y) still a burden on profitability. We exp earnings to continue recovering gradually in 2013 amidst a better pricing environment.
 
·         CCOLA (BUY; TP TL46.81) 4Q12 tdy > We f/cast 22% y-y incr in revenue and a 51% y-y incr in EBITDA=> incr’g profitability of both TR (better pricing environment) and int’l operations (higher economies of scale). CCI had previously announced that its 4Q12 local and int’l unit sales grew 12.5% y-y and 48% y-y (17% organic) resp’vely. Strong lira in 4Q12 should have supported the bottom line.
 
·         TAVHL TI (BUY, TP TRY15.61); OPINION RE EXPANSION OF ATATURK AIRPORT > THY’s former chairman, Karlitekin, says he would prefer to see the new Istanbul airport project cancelled. Adding, he is more hopeful about this happening with the transfer of the land being used by Turkish air forces to Istanbul Ataturk Airport. Says Istanbul’s future air travel needs could be met by construction of new runways at Istanbul Ataturk and Sabiha Gokcen airports; one at each. Goes on to say, Istanbul Ataturk already had the infrastructure and plans were ready for capacity to be expanded to 85m passengers/annum. Says potential construction activities and gains related to the value of land near Istanbul Ataturk was the likely cause of the desire to shut down Istanbul Ataturk. Mr. Karlitekin made these comments through his twitter account. Would be major +ive for TAV if this materializes.
 
·         VAKBN (BUY, TP TL6.72) > Announced DPS: TL0.0400 (yield: 0.72%) Payout ratio: 6.85%. Date not set. Neutral

Hiç yorum yok: