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CONSUMER LOANS
ACCELERATE > We calculate the 13-week
trend growth rate of consumer loans @ 27.4% (March 8 week), up 1.8pp from the
previous week. Increases the chances of a RR hike in the MPC meeting on 26
March.
·
THYAO (BUY, TP
TLY8.46) MISSES ON POOR PRICING POWER > Adjusted NI TL15m (-94% y-y from adj. NI TL232m 4Q11,
BNPP: TL217m, Cons: TL222m); EBITDAR TL413m (-39% y-y, BNPP: TL726m,
Cons: TL723m) and Revs TL3.74b (+17% y-y, BNPP: TL4.06b, Cons: TL3.92b).
4Q12 headline NI TL265m vs. TL97m net loss in 4Q11. Announced cash divi
TL0.1444/share (TL173m, 2.0% yield) payable on May 31 and bonus divi of 15%
(TL180m). Comment > Results weaker than our est on weaker revs. Our
first impression is that this is due to seasonality (i.e. trouble selling
significantly increased capacities in low season), not beginning of a new
downward trend on yields/margins. We will reassess our ests but note that
traffic growth is faster than expected so far in 2013. Other news >
Lufthansa’s CFO reportedly said there were no concrete projects on the table in
discussions with THYAO. We are not surprised and think THYAO might be better
off without deeper cooperation with Lufthansa. But mkt expectations were that
something concrete might come out of discussions, significantly improving
THYAO’s prospects.
·
KOZAL (BUY; TP TL)
4Q12 WEAKER OPERATING ON HIGHER CASH COSTS > NI @ TL155.6m, higher than our TL144m and cons TL149.3m estimates <=
lower than exp’d tax exps. Despite higher than exp’d revenue, EBITDA @ TL186.3m
was below our TL190.6m and cons TL192.6m est <= rising cash costs: ore
grades declined remarkably at Mastra and Cukuralan mines while the share of
underground mining incr’d. Admin exp incr’d by 40% on new mining projects
(Himmetdede and Sogut) => resulting in EBITDA margin decline of 3.5% y-y and
8.2% q-q to 71.0%. We cut TP by 2% and maintain BUY rating <= We raise cash
cost est by 7% for 2013-14E. Maintain our prod’n and rev est for 2013-14E but
cut our EBITDA and NI est by 3%. We remain +VE on KOZAL => project CAGR of
11% in gold prod’n to 511k oz. by 2016 thanks to three new mine projects
(Himmetdede, Sogut and Diyadin), which will become fully operational btw 2014 -
2016. We exp relief in cash costs when Sogut mine replaces the Mastra mine in
2014 <= the grade levels at Sogut are significantly high and should make up
for a potential increase in cash costs in from Himmetdede and Diyadin.
·
EKGYO (NR) BETTER
THAN EXPECTED > Announced 4Q12 results =>
Sales TL318m (cons. TL352m), EBITDA @ TL250m (cons. TL165m) , NI @ TL261m
(cons. TL165m). 2012 year-end NAV @ TL3.16/share => 8.5% discount to
NAV. Implied SPO price at least TL2.81/share, assuming the same IPO NAV
discount of 11.8% is used. Also note that the SPO price is likely to be based
on 1Q NAV, which should be higher than the year-end number.
·
PNSUT (NR) 4Q12
review > NI @ TL15m (-18% y-y) => abv
the figure implied by the tax financials. Improvement in gross margin was striking
(3.5ppt y-y and 7.9ppt q-q). However, surging opex (+54% y-y) still a burden on
profitability. We exp earnings to continue recovering gradually in 2013 amidst
a better pricing environment.
·
CCOLA (BUY; TP
TL46.81) 4Q12 tdy > We f/cast 22% y-y incr in
revenue and a 51% y-y incr in EBITDA=> incr’g profitability of both TR
(better pricing environment) and int’l operations (higher economies of scale).
CCI had previously announced that its 4Q12 local and int’l unit sales grew 12.5%
y-y and 48% y-y (17% organic) resp’vely. Strong lira in 4Q12 should have
supported the bottom line.
·
TAVHL TI (BUY, TP
TRY15.61); OPINION RE EXPANSION OF ATATURK AIRPORT > THY’s former chairman, Karlitekin, says he would prefer to see the new
Istanbul airport project cancelled. Adding, he is more hopeful about this
happening with the transfer of the land being used by Turkish air forces to
Istanbul Ataturk Airport. Says Istanbul’s future air travel needs could be met
by construction of new runways at Istanbul Ataturk and Sabiha Gokcen airports;
one at each. Goes on to say, Istanbul Ataturk already had the infrastructure
and plans were ready for capacity to be expanded to 85m passengers/annum. Says
potential construction activities and gains related to the value of land near
Istanbul Ataturk was the likely cause of the desire to shut down Istanbul
Ataturk. Mr. Karlitekin made these comments through his twitter account. Would
be major +ive for TAV if this materializes.
·
VAKBN (BUY, TP
TL6.72) > Announced DPS: TL0.0400 (yield:
0.72%) Payout ratio: 6.85%. Date not set. Neutral
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