Buy - Sell

·         INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (DEC) @ 10AM > Non cons. Nov @ 3.1% y/y and 1.5% m/m.

·         LOAN GROWTH 21% > During the week ending Feb 1, consumer loan growth reached 21% (19.5% the previous week), on a week/week annualised 13-week moving avg basis. Seasonal pattern suggests further acceleration in 2Q. We believe further RR hikes are likely at the next MPC meeting.

·         TTKOM  > 2013 guidance: Rev growth @ 5-7% y/y (TL13.3bn-13.6bn, 1-3% above cons), EBITDA @ TL5.1bn-5.3bn (0-4% y/y growth, upper-end in line with TL5.3bn cons), CAPEX @ TL2.2bn (sl below TL2.4bn 2012 figure and TL2.3bn cons). Other key points from conf call > 2013 strategy to add new rev sources/products over existing access lines, focus on ADSL subscriber base expansion, and cost cutting efforts. Expects to reap benefits of sales channel consolidation efforts through more efficient upselling, cross-selling, bundling activities. Mgmt said price rationalization in mobile market not a trend yet.

·         THYAO (BUY, TP TL14.60) > Will station additional 15 aircraft at Sabiha Gokcen Airport to overcome capacity limits at Istanbul Ataturk, CEO reportedly said. Added that the co will fly to 250 cities by end 2013 (up from 217 by end 2012). Comment > Somewhat -ve for THYAO which planned to increase fleet to 226 aircraft by end 2013 from 200 by end 2012. We est THYAO currently has 5-10 aircraft at Sabiha. Aircraft to be stationed at Sabiha and associated flights might have lower pax load factors vs Istanbul Ataturk due to lack of transfer traffic and given Sabiha is less popular. Also slightly -ve for TAVHL, as co would not benefit from growth to be provided by these aircraft. Impact might be less than the number of aircraft suggests, as they are likely to be narrow bodies flying to relatively nearby destinations.

·         ARCLK (Hold, TP: TL12.20) > We forecast 4Q12 rev growth to slow vs 9M12 => slowdown in electronics segment & partial consolidation of Defy acq/4Q11. We exp EBITDA mrg to improve from 8.1% in 4Q11 to 10.1% => elimination of aggressive promotions based on energy-efficiency theme. Exp to incur one-offs in 4Q12 following bankruptcy of Comet=> size will be small relative to NI. Mgmt guided 10.5% EBITDA mrg for 2012FY after its 3Q12 => we exp 10.2% (incl. other income). NET/NET: We believe the downside risk to company’s guidance has already started to be priced in during the last few days.