Akçansa Report

§  Net profit is strictly in-line with estimates. Akcansa recorded TRY27mn net profit in 4Q12, in-line with CNBC-e consensus of TRY28mn, and our estimate of TRY27mn. The company’s 4Q12 EBITDA of TRY52.5mn is also in-line with consensus of TRY53mn and our estimate of TRY54mn. We perceive 4Q12 results neutral for company shares.

§  Export revenues contracted. Although the company management has not revealed quarterly volume figures yet, we believe that Akcansa’s domestic sales volume recovered in 4Q12, following an 8% yoy drop in 9M12. Akcansa’s domestic revenues increased by 6% yoy in 4Q12, vs. a sole 1% rise in 9M12. The recovery was hinted by sector data, as Marmara Region’s October-November volume rose by 3%, vs. an 8% yoy decline in 9M12. However, the company’s export revenues contracted by 13% yoy in 4Q12. Under the light of sector data, we think that the contraction emanated from Russia-based exports.

§  Operational margins stayed flat. Akcansa’s 4Q12 EBITDA of TRY52.5mn is strictly in-line with CNBC-e survey consensus of TRY53mn. The company’s 4Q12 EBITDA margin realized at 19.2%, almost flat vs. 4Q11 level of 19.7%. Accordingly, in the absence of a change in non-operating items, Akcansa’s 4Q12 net income of TRY27mn realized close to 4Q11 level of TRY28mn.

§  Hold maintained. Considering EBITDA and net profit figures in-line with market’s and our estimates, we perceive Akcansa’s 4Q12 results neutral. We preserve our Hold rating for the company.

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