Buy - Sell

·         DOAS (Under review) > 3QNI @ TL56m, +70% y-y; abv our & cons est of TL50m & TL51m. TL1.21b sales (+16% y-y); in-line with our est (cons: TL1.25b). EBITDA incr’d by 20% y-y to TL78m vs our est of TL75m (cons: TL79m). Net debt declined from TL585m in Jun-12 to TL537m in Sep12. More to follow.

 

·         DOHOL (not rated) > NI @ TL32m vs cons est of TL4m and EBITDA@ TL82m vs cons est of TL56m.

 

·         KOCHL(NR) > NI @ TL681m (cons TL628m), EBITDA @ TL 1,950m(cons. TL 1,811m), Sales @ TL 21,365 (cons. TL 22,475m).

 

·         TAVHL (BUY, TP TL12.5) => Will reportedly sign a €250m loan agreement with European banks to finance construction of a 25 mppa domestic terminal at Izmir Airport in Dec. Construction cost est @ €250m. Comment: Neutral. The co already started construction for terminal beginning 2012. We presume it waited to complete financing to avoid high project finance interest rates. We est 9.5m passengers will have gone through existing terminal at Izmir in 2012 (+11% y-y, c.15% of TAVHL overall terminal passenger traffic in 2012). The nominal capacity is currently c5.0mppa and will rise to 30mppa with the new domestic terminal expected to be operational at the beginning of 2014.

 

·         TCELL (BUY, TP TL11.10 > Sureyya Ciliv, CEO of Turkcell, says subscriber adds are going ahead of their expectations and Tcell is likely to attain upper ends of their revenue and EBITDA guidance for 2012. Recall the company updated its revenue guidance to TRY10.3b-10.4b (previously TRY10.1b-10.3b) and EBITDA guidance to TRY3.1b-3.2b (previously TRY3,050m-3,200m) following 3Q12 results.

 

EARNINGS TODAY (deadline for cons financials of non-fins and insurance cos)

 

·         THYAO (HOLD, TP TL4.35) => BNPP/Cons (TLm) NI => 428/367, EBITDAR 924/901, Rev 4,310/4,376. We forecast THY's rev growth to slow substantially y-y in 3Q12 on stronger TRY y-y. We expect NI to expand significantly on higher revs, op profit and much lower FX losses y-y. We expect y-y op mrgn expansion to mostly come to a halt on phasing out of the low base effect, pressure on yields from TL appreciation and the co trying to grow much faster than its peers, especially on transfer traffic. 9M12 tax P&L implied revs might surprise slightly +vely but no implication on mrgns. (Probably reporting after market close)

 

·         KRDMD (BUY, TP TL1.55) => BNPP/Cons (TLm) => NI  49/53, EBITDAR 83/89, Rev 426/466. We est lower long steel prices y-y along with relatively strong raw material costs will reduce co's mrgns and profits for the first time in 2012. Yet, we expect the co to weather the unfavourable environment in the steel industry better than most other producers due to its relatively low production costs. 9M12 tax P&L implied that revs and mrgns surprise slightly -vely.

 

·         GUBRF ( BUY, TP TL18.59)=> BNPP/Cons (TL m) => NI 15/17, EBITDA 44/54, Rev 548/551. We expect EBITDA to decline by 74% y-y due to a 30% decline in unit sales of Razi on the back of a mix of production halts and shipment problems arising from sanctions on Iran. We est 6% EBITDA decline in Iran ops despite strong ammonia prices while we expects TR ops to post –ve EBITDA of TL5m. Weak TL should have somewhat helped bottom line.