In the local market, Turk Traktor sold 1,462 tractors in September
2012, down 41.9% y/y from 2,519 tractors in September 2011- Implication on
Stock: Negative. September sales figures was almost 20% below our estimate. In
our view, September unit sales reading was important in figuring out whether the
decline in demand will turn into a major downward trend. Although it is early to
claim that a major downward has started, we are planning to revisit our unit
sales estimates for 2012 and for 2013, after October sales announcement.
Tractor demand has slowed down in last four months, and Turk Traktor’s sales to
dealers has declined as well. We expect the y/y decline in unit sales to
continue for the remainder of the year. We expect Turk Traktor to sell 27,500
units in 2012, yet the chance of reaching that number gets slim. We expect local
demand to moderate further in 2013, resulting in a negative growth momentum in
earnings in 2H12 and 2013. Despite relatively undemanding P/E multiples of 8.6x
on our 2012 estimates and 10.1x on our 2013 estimates, unfavorable earnings
growth momentum will hurt the sentiment on the stock.
TTRAK (HOLD, TP TL37.8)
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