· BUY Maintained… We raised our target share price for
Sabanci Holding by 28% to TL10.20 from TL8.00 owing to a lower conglomerate
discount along with a higher valuation for Enerjisa with the addition of the
recently financed projects. Our target price indicates an upside potential of
20%. We believe that the holding deserves to trade at a tighter discount (vs.
the current 27% level) considering the upcoming corporate actions in the
short/medium term and since stock overhang issue is somehow digested by the
market. In addition, 3Q12 earnings are expected to be strong supported by the
performance of Akbank.
· Lagged behind the rally in Akbank… The bank accounts for 56% and 53% of
the current and target NAV, respectively. The holding lagged behind the recent
rally in Akbank which was supported by the expected strong earnings
performance. Sabanci shares have increased by 11% in the last 3 months, while
Akbank shares soared by 22%.
· Lowering the target NAV discount to
20% from 25%... Sabanci
is trading at 27% discount to its current NAV, while 2-year historical average
discount is 34% and the average discount in 2006-2008 period (before the stock
registrations of family members) was 24%. We expect the investors to continue
to re-rate Sabanci considering the upcoming corporate actions and planned
diversification of the NAV. Currently; listed NAV corresponds to 73% of the
total NAV, while it is expected to reach 90% of total NAV in 2016.
· Corporate actions to follow… Verbund’s potential sale of its 50%
stake in Enerjisa to E.On which might unlock the value of Enerjisa; CarrefourSA
deal which is expected to solve the problematic partnership; privatization of
electricity grids which is expected to enhance vertical integration in energy
business securing captive customers; privatization of Hamitabat gas-fired power
plant (1,120MW) which is in line with the holding’s long term growth strategy
in energy operations are the main corporate actions to follow in the short
term.
Risks… Possible stock sales of family members, since 7.3% of the shares remain
to be sold, regulatory risks in energy and finance businesses, execution risks
are the main risk factors
BGC
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