·
Anadolu Hayat ve Emeklilik (AHE)
reported TRY 17.7mn net profit in 2Q12 (-17.0% q/q and -19.2% y/y),
slightly below the market consensus estimate of TRY 18.4mn and delivered
a quarterly RoE of 16.2%.
·
1H12 net profit of the company
stood at TRY 39.0mn
marking 9.8% y/y expansion with a 12-m trailing RoE of 15.8%.
·
2Q12 can be characterized for AHE
with (i) strong life premium growth dominated by the term-life insurance
policies supporting the life technical profitability and, (ii) moderate
earnings performance in private pension side due to high operating
expenses.
·
Despite the life insurance side
contributed significantly to the technical profitability of the company in the
last a couple of years, the main growth area will be the private pension
business in the medium-long term. Starting from 2013, the government
will become direct contributor to the private pension system instead of tax
benefit, which is expected to boost the fund size in the private pension system
in two ways: (i) Increasing the fund size and, (ii) Lessening the
outflows from the system. Therefore AHE will remain as a growth company
with sustainable profitability around/over 20% RoE in medium-long term. We
reiterate our Outperform recommendation for the stock with a 12-m
target price of TRY 5.70/share.
·
Term-life policies and the
investment income on life funds improved the life technical profitability. Consumer loans grew faster in 2Q12 compared to the
previous quarter. Therefore AHE benefited from both the consumer lending
expansion and the more use of bancassurance. Therefore the life technical
profitability of AHE almost doubled compared to the previous quarter and
reached 11.7%. There is a very close relationship between term-life policies
and technical profitability. The share of term-life premiums in total increased
to ~41% in 1H12 (+16pps ytd) thus the technical profitability improved
significantly. Consumer lending may further pick up in 2H12 due to the stronger
economic activity compared to 1H12, which might result in further contribution
from term-life policies supporting the technical profitability of AHE.
·
As deposits interest rates
increased a bit in 2Q12 the investment income on life funds soared from TRY
26mn in 1Q12 to TRY 43mn in 2Q12. Nowadays the deposit interest rates have been
on a falling trend, which means that the contribution might be narrowing in
2H12.
·
Private pension business
continued its organic growth in 2Q12. After having 13.7k new pension contracts in 1Q12,
AHE managed to have 19.4k new pension contracts in 2Q12. In July 2012 AHE added
around 8k new contract to its portfolio in a single month, indicating strong
organic growth pattern of the private pension business.
·
Although the pension contributions
remained almost unchanged in 2Q12 over the previous quarter, the private
pension fund size grew by 8.2% q/q in the period (27.0% y/y). Given that the
market interest rates have fallen significantly so far in 3Q12 and the stock
market has risen sharply, we expect the private pension fund to grow beyond
its organic pattern thanks to the marked-to-market gains. As end of July
2012 the private pension fund size reached TRY 3,821mn marking 3.4% over the
end of 1H12.
Hiç yorum yok:
Yorum Gönder