Koza
Gold has released its updated resource/reserve figures. The company’s total
resources, measured/indicated and proven/probable reserves grew by 13%, 21% and
22% yoy to 11mnoz, 6.8mnoz and 2.3mnoz,
respectively, adjusted for 2011 production of 302,000oz (up 18% yoy). We
have made a slight revision to our estimates and raise our TP by 4% to TRY
35.8, reflecting inclusion of the increase in proven reserves in our production
model, partly offset by lower forward gold prices. We maintain our BUY call
given the 40% upside and strong catalysts ahead (4Q11 results and
pre-feasibility studies).
■ Potential minable reserves of
0.86mnoz are the key to an upward revision to valuation and reducing the NAV
multiple – The main
drivers of the increase in proven/probable reserves were Cukuralan satellite,
which added 321,000oz, and Kaymaz to a lesser extent. Management stated that 0.86mnoz
of gold are not reported in proven reserves as the pre-feasibility reports have
not yet been completed at Himmetdede and Mollakara (expected in 1H12). We
reckon this could bring the reserve base to 3.16mnoz, implying 63% yoy growth
in reserves. While not included in our production model, this would add ca. 25%
upside to our NAV, based on a cash cost of USD 500/oz (vs. management guidance
of <USD 400/oz) and capex of USD 100mn. It would also lower the NAV multiple
to 1.1x from 1.38x currently. Overall, the valuation impact to our TP would be
ca. 10% due to lower exploration value derived from lower
resources.
■ 2012 production outlook in line;
strong production in 4Q11 – Koza Gold expects to produce 325,000-350,000oz of gold in 2012 (UCI:
327,000oz), driven mainly by the ramp-up at the Kaymaz hub (100,000oz),
offsetting the output decline in Mastra (95,000oz from 165,000oz in 2011).
Production in 4Q11 reached 93,000oz (100,000oz sales volume), up by 11% qoq and 44% yoy. Cash costs came down qoq,
suggesting strong 4Q results (UCI: 4Q11E EBITDA up 176% yoy)
Hiç yorum yok:
Yorum Gönder