Turkey: Capacity Utilization Rate

Capacity utilisation rate (CUR) decreased by 1.4pp to 75.5% in December. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CUR continued to rise since July and posted an increase of 1.0pp  to 76.6%.
                                                                                                                              
The increase in the CUR on a s.a. basis was mainly on the back of export driven sectors, such as textiles (1.  4   pp ), wearing apparel ( 1.6pp ), basic metals (0.9pp),  and automotives (0.9pp). Additionally, CUR in tobacco products recorded the highest increase (6.1pp on a s.a. basis), while the pharmaceutical sector recorded a contraction of 5.6pp on a s.a basis possibly on the back of the recent price reductions imposed on the sector. Intermediate  goods production and consumer goods  production continued their rising trend, and recorded an increase of    0. 6 and 0. 3pp, respectively.

Real sector confidence index decreased by 5.1 points to 97.2 and dropped below 100 threshold for the first time since December 2009. On a s.a. basis, the index decreased by 3.6 points to 107.7. The decline was recorded in all the subcategories except fixed investment expenditure.  Among the subcategories, total export order  expectation  for the next three months declined by 6.8  points  to 114.8 and expectations regarding general business situation declined by 3.5 points  to 103.9.

Real sector confidence index is pointing to a possible moderation in the activity in the coming months.  Domestic demand started to slowdown as evidenced in the decline in total orders. Consumer credit growth fell to 10%, and is likely to remain relatively subdued due to the monetary tightening. In addition, the external financing constraint would likely to limit GDP growth in early 2012. Consequently, we see a further decline in the capacity utilisation unlikely in the coming months.

Teb

Chart 1: Capacity Utilisation Rate (%) and Chart 2: Real Sector Confidence