18 Ocak 2016 Pazartesi

Removal of nuclear-related sanctions against Iran

The nuclear-related international sanctions against Iran including those by the US was removed over the weekend after the international nuclear watchdog, IAEA, said Iran had complied with its agreement with P5 + 1 countries. The removal of sanctions allow Iran and most countries to normalise their mutual international trade relations including allowing of importing as much oil as they like from Iran.

Comment: The removal of sanctions, which were widely expected, is positive for both refiners and airlines worldwide in 2016 and possibly 2017 as they would keep oil prices lower than otherwise.

The removal of sanctions, which were widely expected, have additional positive and negative implications for Tupras which is already a large customer of Iran unlike many other refiners in the world. While it would allow Tupras to purchase more crude oil from Iran (20% to 25% of its purchases in recent years after sanctions vs 45% at its peak), they may also make Iranian oil more expensive relative to other crude oil types as Iran is now free to export its oil many other countries.

As for THY and Pegasus, the removal of sanctions is likely to partly help their growth as well as tourism and business activities between Turkey and Iran is likely to increase further from now. We estimate Iranian routes accounted for about 2% and less than 1% of revenues at THY and Pegasus, respectively, in 2015. 

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