Yesterday was a disappointing day for TRY investors carrying long positions. On a day, when Moody’s stated base case for Turkey is keeping investment grade rating, TRY-denominated assets could not rally. Moody’s commentary could not even sustain a 5-minute short-covering rally in BIST. BIST closed the day flat, TRY basket and yields were higher.
· Rising geopolitical risks (kidnappings in Baghdad + PKK terrorism), Koza Ipek Holding investigations and overall EM weakness may be perceived as the main reasons.
· Turkey’s risk premium, 5-year CDS rose 8.1% in 2 trading days = worst performance in EM.
· This morning, we expect a slightly higher opening for BIST equities just based on S&P500 close from last night. TRY basket is trading @ 5-day highs at 3.13 and traded above 3.14 yesterday despite positive Moody’s commentary.
· August CPI print will be released at 8:00am London time – consensus = 0.11%. Expect tight range trading until U.S August NFP tomorrow.
· BIST100 short-term technicals:
- TRY : Support = 72.8k / 72.0k ; Resistance : 74.5k / 75.3k ; Last trade : 73.7k
- USD : Support = $24.8k / $24.5k ; Resistance : $25.2k (10-dma) / $25.9k ; Last trade : $25.0k
DATA
· August CPI will be announced at 10AM today > TEB/consensus looking for +0.1% m-m, which would keep annual inflation unchanged @ 6.8%. However, we still see upward pressure for core inflation.
COMPANY NEWS
· KOZAL (HOLD, TP:TRY27.0); KOZAA (BUY, TP:TRY2.70) > Koza Ipek Group’s seven employees (top management and accounting officers) who were arrested last Tuesday have been released. However, the court issued an arrest warrant for Mr. Akin Ipek, chairman of Koza Ipek Holding.
· TAVHL (BUY, TP:TRY27.20); THYAO (HOLD, TP:TRY9.30); PGSUS (HOLD, TP:TRY22.20) > No. of foreigners visiting TK +5.1% y-y to 5.5m in Jul’15 (ytd for 7m @ -0.4%) => 1st month of y-y growth since Mar’15. Comment: Though July traffic for TK airports have already been released, news on resumption of growth in TK tourism, albeit @ low single digits, is slightly +VE for TK aviation stocks. No. of int’l passengers going through TK airports +10% y-y in July vs +3% y-y in 1H15. Yet, we think the pick-up of the growth in no. of airport passengers in July from 1H15 has been partly temporary => Ramadan –VE’ly affected June traffic this yr vs July last yr.
4Q15 INDEX CHANGES - PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS
· BIST will announce index changes for 4Q15 b/w Sep-15 to Sep-20 => effective as of Oct-1. Although there is still time for the closing period for 3Q chngs, we have made some preliminary analysis. Pls see below:
o XU030 => IN: DOAS; OUT: MGROS
o XU050 => IN: TATGD, NETAS, EGEEN; OUT: SASA, IPEKE, BIZIM
o XU100 => IN: KIPA, NTHOL, DOCO; OUT: TRCAS, HURGZ, ALBRK
INSURANCE SECTOR
· General Directorate of Insurance aims to combine the private pension system with annual income insurance which provides pension for lifelong. The new model will accordingly be implemented in Oct 2015. Comment: The regulatory body is trying to limit the number of funds established by private pension companies. Intention is to make life insurance companies focus on selling retirement plans instead of managing funds. Neutral for the life insurance and private pension sector.
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