Buy - Sell

·         TREASURY AUCTIONS > Treasury holds 2 auctions today and 3 tomorrow ahead of its TL13.6bn redemption on Wednesday. Today 5-yr fixed coupon and tomorrow 10-yr CPI linker; Tomorrow 10y and 2y fixed coupon bonds and 7y FRN.

 

·         TCELL (BUY; TP TL14.71) > General Assembly meeting scheduled for tdy => Recall: on May 22, the GA could not convene due to the absence of the "51% TCELL Holding" representative (<= election of which is only possible with the consent of two disputed major shareholders, Cukurova and Alfa). Expect the same for tdy’s meeting. Recall: the new bundle bill has not passed through the Parliament yet => the bill grants authorization of the GA to Investor Indemnification Center (IIC) for companies whose BoD members are appointed by the CMB.

 

·         ASYAB (HOLD, TP: TL2.15) > sold an NPL portfolio worth TL140m @  TL8.2m => TL102.5m of the sold portfolio was already written-off. Sale is expected to bring down NPL ratio to 4.43% from 4.63% @ 1Q13 ceteris paribus. Comment: Slight positive as this is the 1st time a participation bank has sold a NPL portfolio (prev’ly they had been saying that sale of NPLs wasn’t sharia compliant) => might mean NPL inflow has been continuing (supported by BRSA’s sector data). Guidance 1) max 4.5% NPL ratio & 2) 60%-65% NPL provisioning ratio, which make us to believe NPL inflow is likely in rest of 2013. Read across to conventional banks not positive as participation banks recognize NPLs quicker.

 

·         TOASO (HOLD, TP TL12.5) > Company expects 4% y-y growth in the market in 2013: domestic demand to increase by 4.1% y-y to 810,000 units in 2013. Co was forecasting 750k units earlier, however revised est due to low interest rates. Note that TOASO already increased its domestic market size est to 820k units after 1Q13 results release, so there is actually a slight decline in demand estimates compared to the official guidance. No major impact from Gezi protests up to now. Also says early to estimate the impact of protests and TRY depreciation on auto sales. Market share est is above our est: TOAOS estimates 13% market share in 2013 (our est: 12.5%). TOAOS’s domestic sales expectation at 105k units is slightly above our 103k est. Our view:  Some reports highlighted an upward revision in total domestic demand ests without referring to the interim revision. TOASO share price was strong on Friday, therefore we do not expect any further positive reflection to the share price.

 

·         ARCLK (BUY, TP TL16.6) > The Fatih tablet project tender is expected to be held today.  Note that the tender has been delayed many times to increase participation.  We do not expect ARCLK to be aggressive for the tablet tender. We expect the co to show more interest for the Fatih smart-board tender which will be held later.

 

·         TRGYO (NR) > Signed pre-sales agreement for c.18% of GSA in its Torun Centre office block project (TL 66.6m). 

 

·         TR DEFENSE SECTOR (NR) > Reportedly, Turkey is going build a laser gun with its own resources under TUBITAK’s (the scientific and technological research council of Turkey) coordination. Slightly +VE news for ASELS (NR).