·
Koza Gold’s net profit fell by 41.8% YoY and 28.8% QoQ to TRY 111mn in
1Q13. The 1Q13 bottom-line is below our estimate of TRY 138mn and the market
consensus of TRY 137mn. The worsening bottom-line mainly stemmed from a lower
top-line and margins.
·
We have reduced our average gold price assumption for 2013 to USD
1500/oz, and to USD 1450/oz for 2014 from USD 1650/oz. In our model, we
estimate average gold prices following a decreasing trend, being at USD
1.250/oz in the long term and ultimately at USD 1.250/oz beyond 2017.
·
Recall that potential variations in gold prices constitute the most
significant risk factor for the Company since its financial statements are
indexed to gold prices. Thus, we have revised our target prices for Koza Gold
to TRY 43.50 from TRY 54.0 due to Q1 results being weaker than we had
expected and declined sharply gold prices in recent days. Koza Gold’s current
price is at TRY 36.80, with our target value representing an 18% upside
potential. Thus, we reiterate our Outperform recommendation for Koza
Gold. On the other hand, note that accordingly, our Koza Anadolu’s (KOZAA) new
target price upon revision is TRY 6.70 (previously TRY 8.20/share).
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