Emlak have announced their FY12 pre-sales numbers
which have come in at 9,126 units – 9% below the bottom end of their
10,000-12,000 unit guidance for the year and 14% below our forecast of 10,671
units.
The driver behind the miss as we understand it is the
delay in recognition in the numbers of certain sales made through 4Q12, and so
we think the sales should be reflected instead in 1Q13. In particular this
relates to two key new project launches in September: Agaoglu Maslak and
Bahcetepe which record sales for the year 1,742 and 563 respectively. While we
do think it is more a timing issue, in our view this does call in to question
some of the comments made in September / October shortly after the launches
that helped drive the stock’s performance in which they stated total sales for
the first few weeks of sales these two projects alone totalled over 3,000 units
and 3 months on those numbers are still to hit the books. This may just be
management’s over optimism on the speed for processing the sales, but in any
event it is still a downside rather than upside surprise.
Emlak is currently trading at 14.5x 2013E and 7.7x
2014E EV/EBITDA on our numbers which equates to premiums of 106% and 23% on the
same metrics to EM and DM peers (average multiples 7.1x 2013E and 6.3x 2014E
and 253% and 97% premiums to Etalon (BUY, TP $8.00, current price $5.10),
which we find hard to justify.
Renaissance Capital
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