Buy - Sell Report

·         FOREIGN TRANSACTIONS (DEC) > Net inflows @ $453m (Inflows $5.6b/Outflows $5.2b). FY12 total net inflows @ $3.2b. Top inflows: GARAN, ISCTR, EKGYO, TUPRS, ENKAI. Top outflows: GOLTS, TCELL, KOZAA, KOZAL, VAKBN. (Dec-12 figures adjusted for AKSEN transaction).

 

·         AUTO SALES (DEC) > Dom auto retail sales @ 115,400 units in Dec (-9% y-y). In-line with recent expectations. FROTO mrkt leader in light vehicle retail sales in 2012. DOAS mkt share declined from high base in Nov (-4.6pp y-y) but still up by 2pp y-y. Note DOAS’s mkt share tends to be weak in Dec. Overall,  no major surprises in Dec data.

 

·         TAVHL (BUY, TP TRY13.80): announced its $65m contract with Georgian govt for renovation of unused 2nd runway @ Tblisi Int’l Airport was cancelled through mutual consent )=> current concession ends as prev’ly planned in Feb’27 (if renovation had gone ahead the concession would have been extended to Nov’37). Georgian govt will

do the renovation itself according to the announcement. Comment: Loss of contract insignificant for both val (less than 0.5% of our val) & for short/long-term profits. It can now better lever itself for other potential projects & work with slightly lower leverage. News may be perceived a bit –VE’ly today as it highlights political risks => operates in EM. Georgian govt had changed with Oct elections. We believe cancellation doesn’t put existing concessions @ Georgia (accounts for 8% of our val) @ risk.

 

·         KRDMD (BUY, TP TL1.55) > Sl increased list prices for some finished products (debars & rounds) effective Dec 8.  We est latest increase in the weighted avg list price @ ~ $7/tonne (c.1%). We believe price increase is reflection of sl upward trend in long steel prices in recent weeks due to rising raw material costs, especially iron ore. Changes effective immediately but likely to affect rev with a lag of week/two.

 

·         GUBRF (BUY, TP TL18.59) > Expects TL2.1b revs and TL190m NI in 2012, in line with our ests. Recall that co posted TL1.4b revs and TL131m NI in 9M12.